Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election
There is a risk of Labour overcompensating for not removing Brown & Miliband.
During Wednesday’s debate, Andy Burnham and the other contenders admitted they would stand down as leader if they were a hindrance to Labour winning in 2020, the fact we’re having this debate is down to Labour realising they may have done better at the 2010 and 2015 elections if they had taken the opportunities to remove Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband.
Any mistake or poor polling will inevitability lead to speculation about the new leader’s future add in the likes of Alastair Campbell saying he will ‘Not To Bite His Tongue’ If New Labour Leader Looks Set To Fail in 2020 any poorly performing leader will be as doomed as a wife of Henry VIII, especially if they fail their first electoral test in May 2016.
During Gordon Brown’s honeymoon when he first became Prime Minister, some thought the Tory party would be better of removing David Cameron, but the Tory party held their nerve, would Labour do the same in this parliament?
The worrying thing for the next Labour leader is that they cannot rely on the polls to save them, their opponents will disregard it citing the great polling disaster of 2015 as to the inherent inaccuracy of polls. It will come down to in large part how the Labour party and the media perceive the new leader, do they have the gravitas to be an election winning leader and future Prime Minister?
To paraphrase Justice Stewart, Gravitas is a lot like pornography, it is difficult to define, but you know it when you see it, if they lack the gravitas to be an election winner or a future Prime Minister, then they will be gone. My advice to the next Labour Leader, don’t eat anything in public, nor should they forget the major political issues of the day from their speech to conference for starters.
Once the Labour next Labour leader has been elected, there should be markets up on whom specifically will be the Labour leader at the 2020 general election and that might provide more value than the 11/4 if you don’t think the next Labour leader will not make it to the general election.
You can access the William Hill market here.