75% would vote to remain to stay in the EU whilst 25% would vote to leave One of the reasons I like the Ipsos Mori polling on the EU, is that they’ve been polling on the topic for nearly forty years, they have another poll out today for the the Evening Standard. If the historic in-out referendum were to be staged now, 66 per cent say they would vote to remain members and 22  per cent would vote to quit. Excluding…
Why Yvette is the smart bet For obvious reasons there isn’t a lot of polling out there at the moment. This makes following the true state of the Labour leadership contest quite tricky. Fortunately, we had a poll yesterday from Ipsos Mori that looked at the Labour leadership among the general public and Labour voters. The tables are here. Let’s get the caveats out of the way first. Labour ‘voters’ are not necessarily representative of the membership that will actually…
North Highcliffe and Walkford on Christchurch (Deferred Election, Two Conservative Defences) Result of last full election (2011): Conservatives 21, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 18) Result of ward at last full election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,136, 1,001 (75%) Labour: 381 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Labour: Donald Barr, Gareth Walls Conservatives: Sally Derham-Wilkes, Nick Geary United Kingdom Independence Party: Robin Grey, Janet Hatton It has often been said that the seaside resorts of Britain “have seen…
Last night it was reported Boris Johnson’s relationship with the capital’s black cab trade has become further troubled after the Sun and Daily Mail newspapers released a video showing the mayor of London on his bicycle telling a taxi driver “to f*ck off and die – and not in that orderâ€. The exchange in Islington, north London, was caught on camera by a passerby. The driver, one of many black cab operators furious at the way Transport for London, overseen…
Thinking about last night’s debate, this market is hard to call, Jeremy Corbyn did well, and seemed to be the most authentic and had a passion that others seemed to lack. Yvette Cooper came off as the safety first candidate, whilst Andy Burnham had an annoying habit of talking over Laura Kuenessberg and the other candidates which did not look good. As Mike noted on twitter last night, Andy Burnham reminded us why in 2010 just 8.5% of Labour members…
Creasy, Bradshaw and Eagle join Flint & Watson on the ballot paper I wonder if the biggest effect of this will be a boost for Sadiq Khan, as all the main leader/deputy leader contenders being white, as the following twitter exchange featuring the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush shows. Labour's leadership candidates are all white – does that matter? http://t.co/pkBN2kw8G2 pic.twitter.com/BiKE36v64x — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) June 17, 2015 @robfordmancs Indeed. I think this may have turned the Mayoral race on its…
Knowing the date of the PM’s departure could be the key It’s a big day for George Osborne. Cameron is away so, as the First Secretary of State in the new Conservative Government, he will be taking PMQs for the very first time – a very clear statement of his position in the pecking order. Looking back he has a lot in common with James Callaghan in 1976. It was widely agreed that in the LAB contest of that year…
This week Polling Matters with Politicalbetting.com Keiran Pedley speaks to James Morris of GQR – Ed Miliband’s private pollster during the 2015 General Election and puts to him some questions raised by PBers. Topics covered include the following (and more): 1) How Labour’s internal polling differed from public polls? 2) What Labour’s polling did (and did not) tell the party and when? 3) Did Ed Miliband really think he was going to win? 4) Did Labour know Ed Balls was…