Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership elections

Betting on who will finish last in the Labour leadership elections

Paddy Finishing Last

Thinking about last night’s debate, this market is hard to call, Jeremy Corbyn did well, and seemed to be the most authentic and had a passion that others seemed to lack. Yvette Cooper came off as the safety first candidate, whilst Andy Burnham had an annoying habit of talking over Laura Kuenessberg and the other candidates which did not look good.

As Mike noted on twitter last night, Andy Burnham reminded us why in 2010 just 8.5% of Labour members give him their first choice vote. Liz Kendall had an okayish night, but she probably came up with the zinger of the night.

The context of this clip was would Andy Burnham stand aside in a few years time if it seemed like he was going to lead Labour to defeat, and his answer was fine in that context, but in the world of politics, sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts, and I get the feeling this will hurt Andy Burnham, you just know, were he to be Labour leader at the next election, the Tories will use that clip, relentlessly. Particularly if Liz Kendall were to use “The country comes first” as her campaign slogan.

But this is what should alarm all the leadership candidates (small sample size, but it was a small sample size focus group that helped propel David Cameron to the Tory leadership in 2005)

Hopefully we should see some polling shortly on what the voters think, now we know who will be on the ballot paper, so calling this market might be easier.

The link to the Paddy Power market is available here.

If you missed it, the debate is available on the iplayer here.


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