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Category: Labour leadership

Labour’s conference: The Henry G Manson verdict

Labour’s conference: The Henry G Manson verdict

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His prediction: “what needs to be done will be done”. This was a bad Labour Party conference. It was confusing, contradictory, let the government off the hook and needlessly created an array of hostages to fortune. It all the feel of an emergency party conference arranged with a fortnight’s notice – not a platform planned carefully to showcase an alternative government and Prime Minister.  This week wasn’t just a car crash. It was a 30 car pile-up. I could write…

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Will October’s polling be crucial for EdM?

Will October’s polling be crucial for EdM?

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Is the media narrative now about his leadership The chart contrasts the Labour lead in the overnight YouGov daily poll (6%) for the Sun and the deficit Ed Miliband has when the same sample was asked “who would be the best PM” (-14%). When the “best PM” question was asked just before the general election Gordon Brown trailed Cameron by just six points. The detail of the overnight polling shows that just 1% of LibDem voters named Ed as “best…

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ICM: Balls gets better ratings from LD voters than Labour ones

ICM: Balls gets better ratings from LD voters than Labour ones

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Will today’s speech start to win more support? New polling data issued today by ICM suggests that Ed Balls is rated more highly by Lib Dem voters than Labour ones. When asked whether the shadow chancellor was doing a good job/bad job the sample split 45% to 27% against the Labour shadow chancellor. Amongst those intending to vote Lib Dem the split was 38% good to 39% bad. With Labour voters, however, only 34% were ready to put him into…

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London Statto looks at Labour’s planned new franchise

London Statto looks at Labour’s planned new franchise

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Is giving 3% to party “supporters” a gimmick This morning we should get the result of the vote on the proposal to open the party’s leadership election to “registered supporters” as well as the three existing sections of the electoral college – party members, MPs/MEPs and, ofcourse, the affiliates (essentially, as we know, the trades unions). The proposal is that the registered supporters will have 3% of the vote once a threshold of 50,000 registered supporters is reached, increasing to…

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The money goes on Murphy on Labour’s first day

The money goes on Murphy on Labour’s first day

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Could he help save Labour’s Scottish seats? The first day of the Labour conference has seen a fair bit of activity in the betting on who’ll be next leader. The focus has been the shadow defence spokesman, Jim Murphy. With William Hill he started the day at 25/1 – he’s now priced at 14/1. PaddyPower had him opening at 20/1 – that’s now tightened to 12/1. Victor Chandler also started at 20/1, then moved to 14/1 and now have Murphy…

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Where Will Ed lead Labour?

Where Will Ed lead Labour?

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One year in, has he an election-winning strategy? The opening of Labour’s conference today marks the first anniversary of Ed Miliband’s surprise election victory. That year has had its share of ups and downs – solid and continuing leads in most polls published, healthy gains in the local elections, avoiding blame for Labour’s debacle in Scotland or the AV result for example. He’s also consolidated his own position as leader and looks well set to lead Labour through to the…

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Henry G Manson on the challenges facing EdM

Henry G Manson on the challenges facing EdM

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How’s the leader going to do next week? The nature of Ed Miliband’s election victory a year ago has proved to be an occasionally irritating backdrop in what has been a rollercoaster year for the leader. From addressing the TUC rally in March, robotically opposing industrial action in June and pulling out of the Durham Miners Gala in July, Ed has failed to develop a clear position with regards to the unions. This has culminated in a combination of proposals…

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If ICM did the daily poll would Miliband be finished?

If ICM did the daily poll would Miliband be finished?

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How much is his survival dependent on YouGov? Last Monday HenryG Manson, our regular Labour columnist, posted the following about the Labour leadership:- “There is no way in the world Ed Miliband will be allowed to lose the next election. If it looks like he cannot win then he’ll be gone. MPs, grassroots and unions all desperately want to win outright and failing that be largest party. I’ve never known the movement soon focused and hungry – more so than…

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