politicalbetting.com

A piece earlier this week in The Hill by Merrill Matthews made for interesting reading. In a nutshell, Dems are polling really well in key swing states when it comes to the Senate races. And yet when it comes to Trump vs Harris it is basically neck and neck in these states. Here are the respective RCP averages: For Senate: Arizona – Gallego (Dem): +7.3 Nevada – Rosen (Dem): +10.7 Michigan – Slotkin (Dem): +4.8 Penn – Casey (Dem): +3.0…

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William Hill have a market up on whether Starmer will be PM at the next election. You’re potentially tying your money up for nearly five years if you think he will for a tiday 25% return. If you think he won’t, then better proxy bets could be available on say the next leader markets. As Jeremy Corbyn (and to a lesser Ed Miliband) showed it is very difficult to shift a sitting Labour leader. Labour do not appear to have…

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The chart shows the betting movement over the last 48 hours. I think the value is with Cleverly and Mel Stride whose price I’d expect to move massively if he finishes ahead of Tom Tugendhat next week in the second round. TSE

I think this is a disastrous result for Tom Tugendhat and it is entirely possible that he gets knocked out next week as Mel Stride hoovers up the votes that Tom Tugendhat was expecting. I hope you all followed my tip when I said Mel Stride was value at 75. TSE

Today voting begins in the Tory leadership election and some past quotes from bandwagon jumping Badenoch from the 2022 leadership election where she effectively endorses Labour’s current policy on the winter fuel allowance. If she becomes Tory leader it will blunt any Tory attacks on Labour’s winter fuel allowance policy because all Starmer et al have to do is use Badenoch’s words against her. I suspect these comments will go down very badly with the predominantly elderly Tory members. I…

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Being engrossed in a good book is one of life’s pleasures and if you don’t experience that regularly that then I pity you. TSE

Politico are reporting that Republicans are racing to plug a massive money hole — before it’s too late. The leader of House Republicans’ biggest super PAC told donors last month he needed $35 million more to compete with Democrats in the fall. Senate GOP campaign chair Steve Daines used his primetime speaking slot at the Republican convention to lament that massive spending from Democrats was keeping him awake at night. And his House GOP counterpart warned that their party’s challengers…

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Just 25% of the public say the Tories and Labour are similar which may ruin a few narratives and memes. TSE