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It is quite a journey for Danny Kruger going from David Cameron’s speechwriter to defecting to Reform. I think Reform will be happy today but long term I agree with Keiran Pedley, which is something I have mentioned on PB before. If Reform does end up like a party full of Tory retreads then it makes the job of Labour easier. Today is a bad day for Kemi Badenoch and feels like another staging point to her removal after the…

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The tax arrangements of politicians buying properties has been in the news recently which helped topple the Deputy Prime Minister so Nigel Farage’s arrangements when it comes to property in his constituency, as The Times notes ‘Had Farage purchased [the property] himself, he would have been liable to pay the £44,250 surcharge in stamp duty for second homes. He already owns a £1m property in Sevenoaks, Kent, which he kept as part of his divorce’ One thing that will be…

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I am not sure this strategy will work, it’s not 1963 and parties cannot engineer by-elections like this. I would also remind people that at the 2024 general election Labour had a 14,696 majority in Runcorn & Helsby and they lost that seat in a by-election. (I know the seats are different but it gives some context in holding this seat.) My other concern about this is that Andy Burnham’s not a very good politician, he was Health Secretary when…

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I am not sure what has triggered this, perhaps there is a poll due to be released? TSE

I’d be cautious about reading too much into this market as firstly it is a low liquidity market and secondly the only way I see Burnham succeeding Starmer is after the next general election and that is potentially four years away. I just cannot see how Burnham becomes an MP before the election because a by-election would be fraught with difficulties. If you think Starmer will not make it to the election then you shouldn’t be backing Burnham in this…

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Longstanding readers of PB know how much stock I place in economic questions (for example it was Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris last year that made me think he would win.) Based on the first tweet Labour looked doomed if they don’t improve things, it should be noted this polling was conducted before today’s worrying economic news which saw the economy grow by zero percent in July. What I find really intriguing is the growing partisan split on these…

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I am not a fan of class warfare and I am not particularly enamoured by this finding from YouGov but I am trying to work who this will benefit the most out of Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell. I understand why Bridget Phillipson is the favourite but I wonder if the best bet to be made is backing Phillipson and Powell as next Prime Minister at 33/1 and 50s at Ladbrokes and Betfair respectively. Their odds would tumble if scandal…

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There’s a ludicrous amount of hyperbole on social media today which I suppose isn’t different to any other day. Whilst Sir Keir Starmer showed poor judgment in picking a man who had to resign in disgrace twice before to be our man in Washington I am not sure voters will use as the main reason how they vote in 2029, the economy, schools and hospitals, and a dozen other things. The closest analogy I can draw to today’s resignation is…

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