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Category: Betting

How the pollsters performed on Thursday

How the pollsters performed on Thursday

I am shocked to learn that People Polling turned out to be the most inaccurate pollster at the general election. I am re-evaluating all the other assumptions I had in life such as the Sun orbiting the Earth, water not being wet, and the French being wonderful. I like the observation on the exit poll by Professor Jennings which reinforces my views expressed before the election that people would be foolish to bet big against Sir John Curtice and the…

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The Liz Truss legacy in one chart

The Liz Truss legacy in one chart

One of the golden rules in British politics is you cannot mess around with the houses and mortgages of the voters. In her short time as First Lord of the Treasury she was responsible for the issues mortgages going up a lot and that that chart by Professor Jennings confirms that maxim. I have my doubts about the Tories benefiting from interest rates being cut later on this year as it would have left mortgage costs still higher than the…

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The majority of voters support changing the voting system

The majority of voters support changing the voting system

Interestingly this polling was taken before election day and extreme inequitable distribution of seats that we saw. My suggestion is that we have two plebiscites, the first one to decide on what system to replace first past the post with, conducted under the alternative vote system to rank your preferences such as STV, AV, etc. Then we have a referendum on whether if we want to replace FPTP with the winner of the first referendum. This polling does scare and…

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Letter from Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Letter from Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

When Sky News came and interviewed me, there were various requests and suggestions for PBisms I could try to slip into the package. I failed. But in the early hours of this morning, after hearing the ANME result from the returning officer, we were asked to show no sign or share any comment about the result of what had been a very tight race. I couldn’t resist making a subtle gesture to a pre-planned stunt as I passed our encampment….

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Some more election stats

Some more election stats

Before I start spending my winnings from GE2024 on betting on the next general election I would advise PBers to take a deep look into the results from last night because the electoral map is a bit of a mess with the smaller majorities that now exist in the individual seats. At the next general election there is a possibility Labour could increase their national share of the vote by 10% and lose their Commons majority because Tories or Reform…

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