After reading this article by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg I am about to do the following The reason I am so confident about this is Trump’s really poor ratings with British voters even before we consider the logistical and age related challenges of Trump standing to become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. TSE PS – Choosing a picture to accompany an article is a joy few have experienced but what on earth is going on in the picture the…
I can understand why 2026 is the favourite in this market from William Hill. If as expected Labour are utterly banjaxed in next year’s local and devolved elections there will a clamour for changes to be made by Starmer and sacrificing your Chancellor might be an option. If Rachel Reeves handles the upcoming budget badly then I can see why people would want to pile on the 2026 exit date as well. I think the value might be in 2028…
One of things that I find hard to call when it comes to the next election is whether there will be de facto/de jure alliances between the various parties and whether it will work. I don’t think there’s any automaticity in adding the scores of parties together an assume that’s the score they will receive. If Reform appear to be a party full of Tory retreads or Tory backed then I suspect they will lose support from previously Labour aligned…
Following his defection last week the Danny Kruger effect has led to Ladbrokes putting up a market on which serving Tory MP will next defect to Reform, the screen shot above doesn’t show all the potential contenders, for example you could get 100/1 on Kemi Badenoch being the next Tory MP to defect. I would avoid this market as it is the epitome of an insiders’ market, I am interested in the market on a Labour MP defecting to Reform….
I am not somebody who is backing Andy Burnham to become next Prime Minister or Labour leader before a 2028/29 general election as I think the possibility of him becoming an MP before then is remote. The possibility became even remoter with the news that Andrew Gwynne will not stand down for Burnham. Perhaps I am missing something really obvious on how Burnham becomes next Prime Minister, if Starmer makes it to the next election then on current polling Nigel…
Hitting rock bottom The Conservative party is the oldest and most successful party in UK history. The 2024 election was the worst ever in its long history (the previous worst in 1906, they still held on to 156 seats) In theory, the Conservatives are still well placed as there are 227 seats, where the required swing is less than 10%. However, it’s not proving remotely easy so far. With Labour seeing their popularity dwindle, the Conservatives ought to be the…
This is not a good look for the SNP but come next May it won’t make much difference at the ballot box. What I find utterly perplexing is that this incident was caused by a debate about out of control seagulls. TSE
Last September I tipped Ed Miliband to succeed Sir Keir Starmer at 100/1, as per John Rentoul’s tweets I am feeling rather content. You can back Ed Miliband as next PM at 21s on Betfair and 11.5s as next Labour leader, you can get 25/1 and 50/1 respectively at Ladbrokes, I think both those prices at Ladbrokes represent an excellent opportunity for profit. In March of this year I pointed out that Ed Miliband was impressing Labour members which should…