politicalbetting.com

Somebody made the observation to me last night that the 75% of the polls conducted wholly in 2025 have Reform ahead of the Tories, admittedly this from admittedly small sample size. My friend observed to me that this year opinion polls will shape the narrative a lot with the likely postponement of so many local elections this year. If this trend becomes solidified then I think it puts Kemi Badenoch under pressure to turn things around, the narrative the Tories…

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TSE

The Critic have published an article focusing on what they see as Kemi Badenoch’s Achilles’ heel “Kemi, unfortunately, has bought into her own mythology. Her self-image far outstrips her actual abilities, a dangerous delusion that has led her to miscalculate time and again. This overinflated sense of self is perhaps best captured by her childhood friend Taiwo Togun, who said Kemi’s mindset is: “I’m probably the best thing in the room, you just don’t realise it, and you will realise…

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TSE

In her weekend interview with the FT Nicola Sturgeon covered a wide range of topics but from a betting perspective this is the key quote. The day after the UK’s 2016 Brexit vote, [Sturgeon] said a second independence referendum was “highly likely”. Now it’s “off the radar . . . But in younger age groups, support for independence is 60, 65, 70 per cent. They’re not changing their minds as they get older. The demographics are very firmly in one…

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With Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin seen as effectively two cheeks of the same arse by the voters there has to be some reaction even before we remember just how the polls show the voters Brexit has been a bit of a disaster. If a referendum were to be held it would likely to be in the next parliament if we had a Lab/Lib Dem coalition at the next election as I expect it would be the latter’s red line…

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I suspect more Reform councillors will be revolting as Nigel Farage parrots the incoming Trump administration’s views on the UK taking back Shamima Begum. Ladbrokes have a specials market on Nigel Farage and for me the only bet that is only worth considering is the 1/6 on Farage to not be replaced as the leader of Reform. Reform isn’t like most political parties as they are a limited company so ousting Farage isn’t possible because of their structure even if…

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Do Britons support the government's proposals to give sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius? Support: 25%Oppose: 21%Don't know: 54%https://t.co/p6yAUTdtDZ pic.twitter.com/gBGtUuZWzq — YouGov (@YouGov) January 9, 2025 Those hoping this policy by Starmer would be unpopular will be disappointed, in the grand scheme of things voters are concerned by public services, taxes, et al, not some faraway islands, these are not the Falkland Islands. TSE