I hate to brag but as I predicted last month it looks like crossover on the main Betfair presidential market is about to happen very shortly and I thought a good Veep pick might be the tipping point and it looks like it. It’s difficult to not like Tim Walz, he was the guy who came up with the idea of labelling Trump/Vance as weird and is with the clip above he’s quite witty playing on the meme that JD…
If Kamala Harris can maintain this momentum into September then this becomes her election to lose as I expect her to receive a bump after the convention. Picking Tim Walz as her running mate should solidify the lead Harris has as they look very impressive particularly compared to the weirdos that are the gruesome twosome on the Republican ticket. TSE
This polling is a bit of a curate’s egg for Labour a majority of the country support the Chancellor’s following George Osborne’s steps to cut public spending but by nearly 2:1 the country say it is being done in an unfair way as opposed to a fair way. There are no exit markets for Rachel Reeves but I don’t think Sir Keir Starmer will do a Liz Truss and ditch the Chancellor at the first sign of problems/unpopularity. TSE
Replacing Biden with Harris is looking like a great decision so far. Ceteris paribus Trump is likely to win the election if he loses the popular by this margin but we need to start talking about the possibility of Harris winning the election despite losing the popular vote. The more the self confessed pussy grabber chickens out a debate I think this lead will widen for Harris. Like Labour this side of the pond it is possible the Democratic vote…
It is polling like this which reinforces my view that Donald Trump should be the favourite to win the election this year. As a general rule people rarely vote to make themselves poorer but Kamala Harris has time to ensure Trump’s wider negatives negate this lead. The originator of the ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ quote the Ragin’ Cajun James Carville would remind us all that healthcare is also important in this context. One crumb of comfort for Team Harris is…
This time a fortnight ago Joe Biden was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party and on course to lose the election but things have changed someone. I think the major difference is how Harris is campaigning to Biden (and most definitely different to Hillary Clinton) which brings states in to play that previously were not and gives Harris a much broader route to victory. Once Harris confirms her running mate I will look at the individual state markets where…
As I noted the other day I think Starmer is following the Thatcher/Cameron playbook and getting the difficult decisions done earlier in the parliament so he can reap the rewards later so this polling is no surrpise. TSE
This is not a good look for Donald Trump and confirms indirectly that Kamala Harris is an opponent to be feared. If Trump does lose this election the person who agreed to such an early debate with Biden will feel the ire of self confessed pussy grabber. If the debate(s) had taken place at the usual point in the election calendar after the debates and Biden had a similar poor performance there wouldn’t have been enough time to replace him….