Our first MRP of the 2025 Canadian election projects a 21-seat majority for the Liberals (based on our central projection)Liberals: 182 seats (+25 notional change vs 2021)Conservatives: 133 (+7)NDP: 4 (-20)Bloc Québécois: 23 (-11)Greens: 1 (-1)People's: 0 (=)today.yougov.com/politics/art…
Our 2025 Canadian election MRP does suggest that a hung parliament is a possibility, with our low-end Liberals projections coming in at 163 seats, short of the 172 required for a majorityA hung parliament occurred in approximately 11% of our modelled simulationstoday.yougov.com/politics/art…
The central projection of our 2025 Canadian general election MRP has the Liberals in the lead on a vote share of 42%Liberals: 42% (+9 from 2021)Conservatives: 38% (+4)NDP: 10% (-8)Bloc Québécois: 6% (-2)Greens: 2% (=)People's: 2% (-3)today.yougov.com/politics/art…
Canada might turn out to be an example of Donald Trump damaging the chances of right wing parties across the world. Something Nigel Farage and to a lesser extent Kemi Badenoch may have to worry about.
Although Sir Keir may also have that issue but he does have a get out of jail card that he is Prime Minister and has to live in the real world. I suspect if Ukraine is sold out by the appeaser and the beardy weirdy Vice President in Washington then that will give Starmer an excuse to very publicly repudiate Trump.
As an aside it is nice to see the secessionist party doing badly as well, which may well become a global trend as well in federal elections, the SNP were smashed last year although that was less to do with the Ayrshire hotelier.