The SNP treasurer must feel like Haley Joel Osment’s character from the film The Sixth Sense with just one major donation to SNP from a living person under Humza Yousaf. Joking aside this must worry SNP supporters and supporters of Scottish independence is that a poorly funded SNP will do badly at the general election because they are under resourced compared to their Unionist brethren. This may lead to the SNP underperforming in the polls as they don’t have the…
If the budget was going to be the launchpad for a May election it has been as effective as the Maginot Line was designed to stop a German invasion, almost like the voters have bypassed whatever the Tories try and do and win election. TSE
Last year I wrote a piece pointing out that Suank was walking into an avoidable elephant sized trap from Labour and the timing of the election, fortunately he took my advice and confirmed that the election would be in the second half of the year. So I am perplexed by Sunak’s comments today as it would be courageous to hold an election when the current polling indicates on course for an epochal defeat that could rival Labour’s defeat in 1931….
Today’s budget didn’t feel like a budget that kicks off a general election campaign in the way Norman Lamont’s budget did in 1992 nor George Osborne’s budget in 2015. I suspect we will have an Autumn statement that will kick off the general election campaign. Just look at that Ipsos polling, the Tories need time to turn that around or at least make it less bad, an election in May doesn’t give them that time, particularly if they are stealing…
The most interesting thing to emerge from Super Tuesday, even more so than Trump losing Vermont and Biden losing American Samoa, are the stats in the Tweets above. For a long time on both sides of the Atlantic we have seen headline voting intention figures which have proven inaccurate at an election but the supplementaries indicated why the headline voting intentions were wrong and I wonder if we’re about to see that phenomena occur again in November. Just look at…
Jeremy Hunt is expected to cut national insurance by 2% in his budget tomorrow but I wonder if that is enough to swing things round for the Tories without extra support for the public services. This budget doesn’t seem to indicate a May election, as the cut will only really be seen in one payslip before a May election. But soaking the hard working higher rate taxpayers seems to be popular. The politics of envy sadly appears to be popular….
One day back in Parliament and George Galloway is throwing a lot excrement at the Labour fan. First there is the offer to Jeremy Corbyn to defect which may appeal to the enabler of a Tory majority but deep I think he is a Labour man at heart and despite his suspension it will be against his natural instinct to stand again Labour at the general election. I cannot see any betting markets on Corbyn to win a seat at…
One of the reasons the PB editorial team love Ipsos polling is that it goes back nearly half a century so we have a lot precedents to compare their polling, which can be occasionally bouncy due to their turnout filter, but their leader satisfaction ratings also help give context. What should alarm Sunak and the Tories are their recording breaking lows, he is polling worse than Truss and Johnson at the time of their nadirs whilst the Tories hit their…