Record breaking Rishi

Record breaking Rishi

One of the reasons the PB editorial team love Ipsos polling is that it goes back nearly half a century so we have a lot precedents to compare their polling, which can be occasionally bouncy due to their turnout filter, but their leader satisfaction ratings also help give context.

What should alarm Sunak and the Tories are their recording breaking lows, he is polling worse than Truss and Johnson at the time of their nadirs whilst the Tories hit their lowest ever score with Ipsos.

Looking at the supplementaries this is an electorate have made their mind up their minds on getting the Tories out, which is why Starmer’s ratings whilst poor are still a damn sight better than Sunak’s.

The next election will undoubtedly confirm the mantra that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them, we have a budget on Wednesday and even if Jeremy Hunt abolished every tax, gave every Briton £10,000 and a unicorn, the Tory vote share wouldn’t move much.

Those who know me well know I am (in)famous for coming up with colourful metaphors on just how buggered someone or something is, right now I cannot come up with a metaphor that accurately sums up just how buggered the Tories are at the next election.

I agree with outgoing Tory MP Paul Scully in his valedictory Twitter thread who said that ‘we [Tories] risk pushing ourselves into an ideological cul-de-sac. The standard deviation model is true in politics. Most people are in the middle. We can work with the bell curve or become the bell-ends. We need to make that decision. I fear the electorate already is!’


PS – Those who wish to replace Sunak with the Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton will take comfort that even at his nadir Lord Cameron’s ratings were a damn sight better than any other PM since Ipsos polling began.

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