The above findings appear to confirm the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose them. What strikes me is the lack of enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour might have some betting implications in so far it might lead to a Labour victory but not the massive landslide victory the voting intention polls indicate but a more modest majority. TSE
With a May general election a non starter and Scott Benton accelerating the process it appears we will have another by-election soon on the English Riviera that is Blackpool. I cannot see anything other than a thumping Labour victory. The only question is can Reform finish ahead of the Tories? TSE
With every passing day I see more polling that makes me think that outcome of the next general election will make 1997 look like a good a result for the Tories when compared to GE2024. The latest finding is from YouGov and that the Tories are in third place behind Labour and Reform when it comes to male voters. Sunak and the Tories must hope this YouGov finding is a transitory blip and not a harbinger of a trend that…
I am working on the assumption that the Scottish Greens will stand down in most Scottish constituencies as not to split the secessionist vote (in 2019 they stood in 22 out of 59 Scottish constituencies) but in England & Wales I expect the Greens to put up something similar to the 472 candidates they stood in 2019 so there will be plenty of opportunities to vote Green but will they vote Green at the election? I think with the unpopularity…
If Sir Simon Clarke is correct then we could see a vote of confidence in Sunak very soon (which I expect him to win). One of the factors that should help Sunak survive is this poll from Opinium which shows the Tories are going to be experience their own Battle of Adrianople at the next general election no matter who leads them with only Penny Mordaunt achieving a better result than Sunak. This poll also confirms that if the Tories…
These focus groups has come up with a fantastic analogy. For some of these former Conservatives, the paradoxical appeal of a change of government was stability: “If the Tories did get back in they’d go for a new leader and then it will be catastrophe all over again. So as much as I’m not really a Labour supporter, I feel a change of government would stabilise things;” “It feels like we’ve got alcoholic parents. Everything’s crazy and then the next…
When a cult takes over a political party there is a tendency to tell existing supporters to go and vote for somebody else, we saw this with some Corbynites which explains why Corbyn lost two general elections in a row. Seeing the clip above did bring back some memories but from a betting point of view it might be time to start thinking about laying the GOP taking back control of the Senate in November. So there’s three main reasons…
On Tuesday I wrote about Sunak’s latest plan which involved Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election which would allow Sunak to get out of jail, I remain doubtful of such hopes and today’s Savanta poll reinforces those doubts and the Betfair market seems to think it is a done deal for Khan as do I. Chris Hopkins of Savanta has written a thread on why Khan’s lead may not as be as impressive as it first seems. TSE