??? Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.

— Patrick Flynn (@patrickjfl.bsky.social) 2025-04-28T13:08:22.606Z

With Canadians whose vote was influenced by Trump's recent actions, the Liberals dominate with 53% of the vote, and Mark Carney leads by 44 points on who would be best to handle the US-Canada relationship (the second most important issue) among those who see it as important.

— Patrick Flynn (@patrickjfl.bsky.social) 2025-04-28T13:08:22.607Z

Trump's actions have dramatically affected Canada's views of the United States. Almost half of Canadians now see the US as either 'unfriendly', or an enemy of Canada, a higher percentage than those who say the same about China.

— Patrick Flynn (@patrickjfl.bsky.social) 2025-04-28T13:08:22.608Z

However, while some of the fundamentals favour the Liberals, we think we should be cautious. The 'wisdom of the crowd' method, which successfully predicted Trump's swing state victories in November, points towards a polling error and a Conservative victory today.

— Patrick Flynn (@patrickjfl.bsky.social) 2025-04-28T13:08:22.609Z

You can read our whole report here: www.focaldata.com/blog/trump-e…

— Patrick Flynn (@patrickjfl.bsky.social) 2025-04-28T13:08:22.610Z