Runcorn and Helsby by-election, model forecast

LAB: 36% (-17)
REF: 35% (+17)
CON: 11% (-5)
GRN: 9% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (+2)

via Britain Predicts, the @BNHWalker model
Detail:https://t.co/gvskhorhVU

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 29, 2025

Tomorrow sees the first by-election of this parliament and it has the potential to be quite seismic if Reform win or to a lesser extent Labour hold on.

One of the reasons I’ve not covered this by-election as much as I wanted to is that there’s been no real value in the markets, looking at the Reform vote share market at Ladbrokes there could be value in backing the 8/1 on Reform getting between 45% and 49.99%.

Based on the Britain Elects forecast you might want to back Labour but not for me.

TSE