An update on my 14/1 bet

An update on my 14/1 bet

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A truly stunning result for the Canadian Liberal Party. Mark Carney (with a lot of help from Donald Trump) has secured one of the greatest comebacks in electoral history. Liberals are up seats but so are the Conservatives. NDP rout. Libs likely a minority and will have to work with others.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewisgoodall.com) 2025-04-29T05:54:35.368Z

And despite a reasonably strong Tory performance overall we are very much in the territory where their leader, Pierre Poilievre, might lose his Carleton seat.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewisgoodall.com) 2025-04-29T05:59:38.751Z

Not since the 1940s has a Canadian Party enjoyed four or more wins on the trot. Quite something that Donald Trump would become the saviour of Canadian progressivism and Davos man Mark Carney the standard bearer of Canadian nationalism.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewisgoodall.com) 2025-04-29T06:08:16.010Z

But for a few thousand votes here and there Pierre Poilievre would have become Prime Minister but it is likely he ends up losing his seat such are the fine margins of politics.

It is quite the remarkable turnaround considering the Conservatives led by 27% in the polls in January, like Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal who led the Premier League for a record breaking 248 days in the 2022/23 season they blew it in the final stages.

One of the hot takes will be being close to Trump will be damaging in other countries such as the UK and Australia but I wonder if that will be wrong given that Canada geographically borders America in a way the UK and Australia do not.

TSE

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