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This polling reminds me of an observation by a politician that you really cannot trust the public as the public vastly overestimate their understanding of things. As somebody who loves using Roman numerals I find this polling but hilarious and sad at the same time. I think there is a clear correlation with people perceiving understanding Roman numerals as a sign of strong intellect so think they are cleverer than they actually are. I think LXXXII per cent of people…

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It’s a low bar but yesterday was Sir Keir Starmer’s best day as Prime Minister but long term there’s a risk for Starmer that he gets damaged standing too close to Trump given the Ayrshire hotelier’s ratings in the UK. That Starmer Tweet from 2019 will be ruthlessly exploited by the Lib Dems, Greens, and the SNP which again presents problems for Starmer. TSE

I find it intriguing that whilst the government’s ratings have improved somewhat, admittedly from dire to appalling, Rachel Reeves has seen the opposite happen. I wonder if soon Starmer may have to sack her to save his government if this polling isn’t a one off and she starts polling much worse than the government. TSE

Your regular reminder that betting markets can be as inaccurate as an American war movie and also of the power of Trump. TSE

Since Donald Trump’s second inauguration things aren’t looking well for Ukraine and Brits realise the outcome of the war is key to our national interest which presents problems for Nigel Farage and Reform. Nigel Farage looks set to play the role of Orville the Duck to Donald Trump’s Keith Harris which I think will go down very badly with the public and coupled with yesterday’s news that ‘The former leader of Reform UK in Wales accepted bribes in exchange for…

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With Mike Amesbury being sentenced today (and him appealing) the recall process will be slightly paused, I suspect we will see a by election at some point this year. Ladbrokes have a market on a potential by election. I still think Labour has a chance of holding the seat but I understand why people will want to back Reform. TSE

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I am intrigued to see if the interventions by the new American administration starts impacting election outcomes in other countries, such as Germany and Canada, we won’t have long to wait to see with the former. TSE