Reform's growth is changing the nature of its support While Reform 2024 voters are more like to say they back the party on policies & leadership – their new voters are less ideologically motivated to them & more likely to say Reform support is because of dislike of other parties
You can see it here too – while both Reform's GE voters and their newer voters back the party because of policies on immigration – their new voters are significantly more likely to say they also back the party because they have been let down by traditional mainstream parties.
So what's happened since the election is that Reform has capitalised on the sense of pervasive disillusionment we hear right across the country. Their new voters are even more likely to be frustrated by the status quo (from a high base)
But they are also less aligned with the figures more popular with some of the online right. Reform's new voters have much more negative views of Elon Musk, Tommy Robinson or Donald Trump than Reform 2024 voters.
But there are differences. Reform's new voters are more neutral on if net-zero & more likely to worry about far right terror. Reform's new and old voters sympathise with Ukraine over Russia and believe advancements in women's rights are good – but their newer voters are more likely to think this
In many ways it reflects Farage's success at tapping into disillusionment and the demand for change – broadening his base. But it also poses challenges, his newer supporters are less ideological than Reform's base and more likely to be deterred by anything extreme (with Trump a particular challenge)
This polling from More In Common is interesting on several levels. It appears that new Reform supporters are driven by a disillusionment with Labour and the Tories than unequivocally backing every Reform policy enthusiastically.
If Labour can display some competence and deliver some improvements they could win back plenty of supporters, with potentially over four years to the next election there’s plenty of time for them to turn it around but so far it appears Labour are trying to prove the old maxim that oppositions do not win general elections, governments lose them.