politicalbetting.com

Despite being potentially four years away, some people, particularly on social media (I know) think Reform will win the next election, I have my doubts, for the following reasons As we can see from the above polling from YouGov (which is from a longer series of posts) that voters would prefer a Labour/Starmer led government rather than a Reform/Farage led government after the next election. We saw this kind of polling between 2010 and 2015 when Labour often led by…

Read More Read More

The Guardian and others report Angela Rayner has admitted that she underpaid stamp duty on her £800,000 seaside flat, after coming under intense pressure to be more transparent about her property arrangements. The deputy prime minister has referred herself to the prime minister’s ethics adviser after confirming she will have to pay more of the property tax. She incorrectly paid the lower rate on the apartment in Hove, she said. Experts have said the bill could run to as much…

Read More Read More

If the public are right then punters might want to take the 8/13 Ladbrokes are, but the time value of money might not be attractive to some. TSE

I am a fan of Torsten Bell, whilst I do not agree with his politics, he was thoughtful during his stint at the Resolution Foundation so I am not surprised with this promotion to help assist with the next budget. Given the heavy emphasis Labour have made of Rachel Reeves being the first female Chancellor then in the short term I cannot see a man replacing her. If we do get a second Labour term (and anything is possible under…

Read More Read More

When will the Aberdeenshire hotelier’s second term end? The last few days the internet became very excited about Donald Trump absence and health. I am not reading too much into this, for example speculating on someone’s health based on an enhanced photo is like relying on a Scottish subsample, it is inherently unreliable. There are plenty of markets on when Trump’s second term will end/will he complete a full term, these are markets I am avoiding because I think it…

Read More Read More

During Iain Duncan Smith’s tenure as Tory leader the BBC pointed out the inaccuracies in his curriculum vitae was inaccurate and it helped damage him and on a cumulative basis helped end his leadership. Like Rachel Reeves and her CV issues I don’t think this will be a career ender on its own but other issues will. Any Tory MP looking to oust Kemi Badenoch have more ammunition. My expectation for exit being in 2026 hasn’t changed because of this…

Read More Read More

My expectation for 16 and 17 year olds will be much lower than the rest of the electorate but if this polling is close to the actual result at the next election then this is good news for Reform as Labour’s lead over Reform becomes a rounding error. As I predicted the party most damaged by this new party is the Greens. I suspect a lot of attention will be drawn to Nigel Farage having better ratings than Sir Keir…

Read More Read More

Looking at this list from Ladbrokes I think Corbyn has a more plausible route to become mayor that people who according to Ladbrokes have a better chance of winning than Corbyn. I can see Corbyn’s brand of politics appealing to London in 2028 so at 25/1 I feel a trading bet is in order but I understand why punters might want to swerve this bet. TSE Update – PBer NigelB suggested this tip yesterday too.