The next PM betting market in the last 48 hours
TSE
This was the worst performance by a Scotsman since Italy v Scotland last weekend
Last weekend the Scotland men’s rugby union put in the worst performance against a side from Rome since the Battle of Zama, today’s intervention by Anas Sarwar was similarly bad. All the intervention has done has strengthened Starmer in the short term at least, it just reinforces my view that it is a bloody difficult to remove a sitting Labour leader if they don’t want to go. This was also a good day for all political parties in Scotland who…
By the pricking of my thumbs something wicked this way comes
This Scottish play by Anas Sarwar to try and oust Sir Keir Starmer feels like a tipping point but only if Westminster cabinet members follow or others such as the Welsh First Minster, and metro mayors. Starmer shall never vanquished be until Great Burnham wood to high Dunsinane Hill Shall come against him. I am in meetings for the rest of the afternoon. TSE
One party has form for ousting leaders, the other less so
As I write this it feels like that Sir Keir Starmer is more screwed than Bonnie Blue and that we are approaching the end of his premiership soon but history suggests otherwise. This week (Wednesday in fact) is the fifty-first anniversary of Margaret Thatcher becoming Conservative Party leader, one thing that stands out when studying and betting on leadership elections, the Conservative Pary ‘is an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide’ whereas Labour also has a North Koreanesque loyalty to the…
Could a Healey or Benn finally lead Labour?
My strategy in this market has generally been to lay Andy Burnham and back long odds bets and I am adding John Healey to that portfolio. He could be the compromise candidate and this has all the hallmarks of being an excellent trading bet. Healey’s done well at Defence, he appears competent which is more than can be said for some of his colleagues. I also think the 33/1 that William Hill are offering on Hilary Benn is worth a…
The sum of all Keir’s support
Survation have carried out some polling for Labour List on a Labour leadership and it has a major betting implications, Labour List say Keir Starmer would lose a head-to-head leadership contest against Angela Rayner, but win against Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband, polling for LabourList has revealed. Polling conducted by Survation for LabourList found that the former deputy leader would defeat Starmer by a 11-point margin, but the Prime Minister would defeat the Energy Secretary by three points. Should Angela…
Punters unmoved by recent events
If Sir Keir Starmer is ousted in the next few months I suspect the Labour price might improve as new Prime Ministers usually get a bounce, even Liz Truss experienced a bounce. TSE
How HMRC could turn the leadership ambitions of Angela into ashes
Anyone who has dealt with HMRC in the last few years will know the infuriatingly slow place of HMRC so this story will be familiar. Angela Rayner is trying to out the issues of her tax minimisation strategies that led to her resignation as Deputy Prime Minister because she and her colleagues know she cannot run whilst this investigation isn’t resolved, as The Telegraph reports Almost six months on, there is still no sign of the taxman’s findings, with some…