The Lib Dems are setting themselves as the one GB wide party who are unambiguously publicly anti Trump which may lead to a polling boost for them if Trump’s appeasement of Putin/sellout of Ukraine continues, Tim Farron shows how they are utilising that approach. The intervention from Liz Truss also confirms that Kemi Badenoch was absolutely right when she wanted Liz Truss to shut up TSE
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Previously in this market I thought given the structure of Reform it was unlikely that Farage could be ousted but now the party is like the traditional parties it is rather more possible following today’s announcement. With a significant element of Reform voters being rather more pro Trump/pro Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and if Farage does denounce Trump then it is possible for Farage to be ousted, I still Badenoch is the one i would back if i was forced…
If Nigel Farage wants to become Prime Minister, ceteris paribus, he needs to polling north of 30% and if he doesn’t denounce Donald Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine then I suspect his and Reform’s polling will go down and if he does repudiate Trump significant numbers of Reform voters will be annoyed. I am not sure how Farage squares this political circle. TSE
When comparing Sir Keir Starmer to other recent Prime Ministers then it isn’t very good news when in the head to heads he only betters Liz Truss who was the Derby County 2007/08 of UK Prime Ministers. The head to head I find the most fascinating is that Boris Johnson is barely beating Sir Keir, compared to the much larger lead that David Cameron enjoys, which bodes ill for those who want to se a Boris Johnson comeback. The good…
I find this polling illuminating where the reality meets the fantasy, although the voters are pretty thick when it comes to understanding inflation as I pointed out in June 2023. I wouldn’t advise Labour to tell the voters they are better off, inflation jumping to 3% will not help their cause. TSE
I am reminded that appeasement was popular until it wasn’t but Starmer might become even more unpopular if he does the right thing. Si vis pacem, para bellum should be the mantra for Europe now. TSE
Picture above: Screenshot from today’s edition of The Times It is curious that somebody is clearly gunning for Rachel Reeves, we’ve had several stories that are sub-optimal for her. None of these stories on their own are resigning/sacking offences but on a cumulative basis they are problematic. I cannot see any exit date markets/next Chancellor markets at the moment but Reeves is becoming a problem for Starmer, although these stories would be political flotsam and jetsam if her stewardship of…