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It is astonishing to think that as we approach the tenth anniversary of when the wise Scots rejected secession and division we have the first proper* YouGov poll since before the referendum to show Labour ahead of the SNP in Westminster voting intentions. Labour used to dominate Scottish politics like a dominatrix whose client didn’t have a safe word and I still maintain the most astonishing election result this century in the UK was in 2015 when Labour went from…

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Last week it was announced that the Blackpool South by-election will take place on the same day as the local elections and I wonder if the by-election is what, rather than the locals, triggers a vote of confidence in Sunak. If the Tories finish behind Reform that might spread blind panic amongst Tory MPs that this is happening so close to a general election. As far as I can see only Smarkets have a betting market on the by-election but…

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For most people The Handmaid’s Tale is a book/film/tv show but for the Republican Party is seems to be an instruction manual which is why I believe Biden will win in November in part thanks to abortion. This hard hitting advert from Biden shows the cruelty of the changes to the abortion laws in America and I expect it will get even Biden sceptic Dems out voting in November when he reminds them of Trump boasting about the changes he…

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If as expected Sunak leads the Tories to a record breaking defeat, say a 1931 in reverse, he will be pilloried for that but as Professor Curtice points the real architects of the defeat are Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. As Margaret Thatcher, Sir John Major, and Theresa May can attest you really cannot mess around with the mortgages or houses of the voters, Liz Truss found out that during her brief tenure, and as for Boris Johnson only his…

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There’s a poll by YouGov for The Times which shows that even an improving economy will not help the Tories avoid an electoral armageddon which was Sunak’s hope. Voters also expect Labour to increase their taxes but for me the most striking figure from this poll was roughly the same number of people expect Labour to cut taxes than the Tories. It shows how badly the Tory brand has been contaminated that like on defence, Labour are seen better than…

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I’ve have previously noted that two of out of the three MRP polls this year shows the SNP winning a majority of Scottish Westminster seats at the next general election which seems hard to reconcile with Labour winning 400 plus seats this polling does give some potential explanations. A net negative 53% says the Tory government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected in Scotland a net negative 14% say the Scottish government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, so there’s less intensity…

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I salute Mike Munson of the Green Party for this awesome bar chart which is one of the truly logic defying bar charts I have ever seen and I’ve been following Lib Dem bar chart crimes since the last century. TSE

The Times have done a bit of a deep dive into the latest YouGov MRP and it is clear Labour’s vote is becoming more efficient, as The Times notes The MRP model poll finds that Labour’s vote is down on 2019 in more than 50 constituencies, predominantly urban seats where progressive supporters have been disillusioned by Starmer’s move to the centre and his stance over the conflict in Gaza. However, this does not prevent Labour from retaining all these seats, many…

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