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Do Britons support the government's proposals to give sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius? Support: 25%Oppose: 21%Don't know: 54%https://t.co/p6yAUTdtDZ pic.twitter.com/gBGtUuZWzq — YouGov (@YouGov) January 9, 2025 Those hoping this policy by Starmer would be unpopular will be disappointed, in the grand scheme of things voters are concerned by public services, taxes, et al, not some faraway islands, these are not the Falkland Islands. TSE

Liz Truss is the gift that keeps on giving. Her cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer is an interesting tactic. David Allen Green has looked at the legal perpective here but I am going to look at the political perspective. My expectation is that her action will be the Streisand effect on stilts. The last thing the Tories need is Liz Truss reminding the country about her tenure. Whilst she didn’t last long enough to crash the economy…

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One of my all time favourite general election constituency results is the one above which shows the absurdity of the first past the post system. Despite being elected as Labour leader under the alternative vote system Starmer has no plans to change the voting system for the UK general election so FPTP is here to stay in all its glory. As a gambler my big fear for the next general election is in the majority of constituencies we might see…

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Rachel Reeves tenure as Chancellor reminds me of a Yodel driver, both rarely deliver and when they do it usually is a bit of a disaster. Her and Labour’s economic chickens are coming home to roost, they spent the last election campaign ruling our direct tax increases which led to the job destroying increase in national insurance for employers. Labour also spent fourteen years deriding austerity as a deliberate choice when it is was a fiscal reality/neccesity and now they…

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Mark Carney (yes, that Mark Carney) opens as 6/5 favourite to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party Leaderhttps://t.co/DIiC9EqRU8 pic.twitter.com/Kyli4i1kId — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) January 7, 2025 My knowledge about Canadian politics is somewhat limited but I am not sure an ex banker, even an excellent one like Mark Carney, is best placed to win an election. Those more knowledgable about Canadian politics could proffer some value in this market. For puntastic potential I hope the Liberals choose François-Philippe Champagne. TSE

The screen grab above is from yesterday’s Sunday Times, like most of Starmer’s inner circle I think this is a bananas ideas for several reasons. Let us say that Badenoch proves to be a disappointment and is replaced, a new leader might experience a new leader bounce which would be sub-optimal for Labour’s chances. The memories of Gordon Brown & Theresa May and snaps elections (hyped but not held and not hyped but held) will also focus minds. Also, having…

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It pains me to have to write so many threads relating to Elon Musk but this is the world we live in but I don’t think this intervention from Elon Musk will damage Farage at all. Siding with Tommy Robinson would see Reform’s support at very low levels which is why Farage in his past parties has been wise to avoid ex BNP types from his parties. If Donald Trump also renounces Farage then that would also be a benefit…

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Picture – Matthaeus Loder – The Card Layer – Germanisches Nationalmuseum, Nuremberg Last year’s PB Predictions Competition proved to be somewhat like Winston Churchill: popular but very difficult.  In true Churchillian ‘never-say-die’ spirit we thought you might like to come back for more punishment. To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 14 questions before the end of January 2025.  If you can put the word ‘competition’ in your post it will help me to collate…

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