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Author: TSE

Think Caerphilly before betting on this by-election

Think Caerphilly before betting on this by-election

Today sees the Caerphilly by-election and these are the latest odds from Ladbrokes and I think the value might be on backing Reform to poll 45% to 50% at 4/1. Last week’s Survation had them polling at 42% so a bit of sampling variation plus tactical voting from the Tories might push Reform into the 45% to 50% bracket. Whilst writing this piece I’ve also convinced myself the 50% might be worth a smaller stake too. TSE

This can be classed as a bona fide Brexit dividend

This can be classed as a bona fide Brexit dividend

YouGov have polled across several European countries about their attitudes about the European Union, there’s a bit of negativity towards the EU and its direction therein but as we can see from the above polling there’s no real desire to the leave the EU. I think Europeans have seen how badly and much energy wasted thanks to Brexit and they’ve decided they don’t wish to repeat that which can be classed as a positive outcome of Brexit, Brexit has strengthened…

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Your regular reminder that words matter

Your regular reminder that words matter

I love how changing a word or phrase can lead to a different result by changing the term from ‘publicly owned’ to ‘run by the government’ sees support fall by 10%. This is why you should never consider an opinion poll finding the definitive result on a particular topic. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday and consequently blogging will be light until Halloween.