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As Lord Ashcroft can attest constituency polling is very difficult but assuming the poll is largely right, then I think the value is with Plaid Cymru, they are 2/1 in what is a 50/50 race. There’s also plenty of votes on the left for them to squeeze, I can see Labour getting squeezed to single digits which is some achievement as they polled 46% in 2021. The only team to have a worse record in Wales recently than Labour is…

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Based on events in Parliament, the commentariat, and social media, the China spy story is a big deal yet very few of the public have noticed. The story may get traction but unless there’s a smoking gun I expect other issues such as Rachel Reeves and her tax plans will dominate the news agenda. TSE

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I suspect this is a proxy bet on whether the peace deal in the Middle East unravels or not. My instinct is to back no as you’re effectively betting on Hamas and Netanyahu to behave and stick to the terms of the deal and that’s like expecting Boris Johnson to tell the truth. TSE

Before I saw this stat my intuition would have been the lower the turnout the better Reform would do but as we can see that’s clearly not the case. I would counsel against reading too much into this for the next general election, the next round of local elections in May (and the devolved ones too) if this pattern holds up. TSE

When I first read about John Swinney’s comment my first thought was about Josh Lyman coming up with a secret plan to fight inflation in The West Wing. I am quite intrigued to see what the plan is although it might be moot if the SNP do not reach 65 MSPs next year, only once in the previous six Holyrood elections has a party won a majority. I have previously called Swinney’s plans courageous because he’s going to look pretty…

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