The ConHome poll has moved the market
We might soon see a Cleverly/Jenrick crossover. TSE
Let’s talk about Robert Jenrick’s balls as there are betting implications
As a lifelong Conservative the thought of Robert Jenrick leading my party fills me with the same level of dread I experience when my other half asks to use my phone or laptop, not only because of his descent to the headbangers on the unelectable Braverman right of the party but down to his dealings with RIchard Desmond, his donors, and of course his desire to paint over pictures that might comfort frightened children. I had a very small hope…
Most Brits would either be unbothered or pleased if the Malvinas went to Argentina
I am a bit surprised by these findings, those people expecting a terrible backlash for Starmer over the Chagos Islands will be shocked as I think more Brits value the Falkands than the Chagos Islands. TSE
Not very clever from Cleverly
I was planning on doing a thread on whether we’d see a crossover on Betfair between James Cleverly and Bobby J Robert Jenrick however that’s not going to happen because in James Cleverly’s role in the Chagos Islands deal, another disastrous legacy of the brief tenure of Liz Truss. Looking at how Betfair has reacted from Cleverly’s Kemi-kaze Badenoch style approach we are going to see a crossover again between Cleverly and Badenoch. I think there may now be a…
Bobby J’s choice of middle name isn’t very popular
Picture: Merchandise sold by Robert Jenrick and his campaign TSE
Why you shouldn’t read too much into small unweighted subsamples
This is a very usual thread about why you should never read too much in to unweighted subsamples, this is a universality that applies to polls across the world, from Kentucky to Kirkintilloch and everywhere else inbetween. TSE
After the beauty parade punters make Cleverly the coming man
After the final four made their speeches today Kemi Badenoch continues her collapse in the betting market whilst James Cleverly has surged. Next week Tory MPs will decide who the final two are and I wonder if the value is with Tom Tugendhat because if Jenrick has votes to spare he will want to face Tom Tugendhat rather than James Cleverly and will urge his supporters to vote tactically. Tugendhat is currently 28s on Betfair and 33/1 at Ladbrokes. TSE
After the Veep debate Trump is now the favourite
I haven’t watched the Veep debate in full but of the clips I have seen neither man had a gaffe and I’d probably make the result a draw but I’d give the win to Vance because he came in with very low expectations. TSE