politicalbetting.com

Will the methodology changes hurt Labour most? PB regulars will know that I’ve been raising concerns about YouGov’s weightings for a very long time and have argued that these were giving a rosier picture of Labour’s position compared with other pollsters. Last Monday, while I was still on holiday in Spain, the firm introduced some major amendments which are to be applauded. On the party ID weightings the SNP and PC are now split off from the “others” and the…

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Are you getting a sense of deja vu as well?

A guest slot from “PB’s Man on the Rock” In Gibraltar’s forthcoming general election, now only a month away, the Chief Minister Peter Caruana is hoping to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term in office although, after being in power for the last 16 years, he has made it clear that, were he to be successful, this would be his last election. Under Caruana, Gibraltar has become something of an on-line Las Vegas in Europe. About 20 online betting…

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How to tell when they’ll stay and when they’ll go One of the best rules of thumb for political betting is that unpredictable events don’t happen as often as popular memory (mis)remembers – or put another way, the value is usually against a resignation, leadership challenge or other like happening. The flip side is that sometimes, like with Liam Fox’s resignation, they do. How best to identify the exceptions? Ministers generally resign either because they’ve done something wrong or because…

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My first day back after a long holiday. I always hate it as you try to adjust to “normal” life again. The big political story that will dominate the weekend is, of course. Monday’s vote in the commons on the EU referendum motion. It looks as though there’ll be a sizeable Tory rebellion which could easily be 55 or greater. Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonPB

Dave can’t win women back with cuts I am now confident Labour will win more votes from women than the Conservatives at the next general election. This would normally be an absurdly bold claim this far out from an election and especially since the historical trends suggest women are more inclined to vote Conservative than men. I don’t put this confidence down to Cameron’s daft “calm down” quips or the relative lack of women in Cabinet. My guess is that…

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