Just over a fortnight ago I tipped a 50% in fewer than three months when I said Sadiq Khan would achieve the largest first round victory in London mayoral history, sadly Ladbrokes have pulled that market. It feels inevitable that Sadiq Khan will win in May, PBers will have to exercise their own judgment on whether they wish to take the 1.06 available on Khan winning on Betfair. I expect the Green and Lib Dem votes will be squeezed as…
One of the big unknowns in WH2024 is how Trump’s chances could be affected if he gets convicted in the courts of a criminal offence. Currently there are quite a number of cases which the judicial system is bringing forward which could possibly be concluded before November when the Presidential election is due to be held. The former President’s strategy is to play for time and hope that nothing is concluded before the election date. This might be a lot…
You know you’ve hit rock bottom when even Reform don’t want you, perhaps they’ve seen the polling. TSE
Former Labour councillor turned Tory MP Lee Anderson may rival Liz Truss as the greatest political sleeper agent this century. London Tories have realised the damage he is causing them the way they are publicly repudiating his divisive rhetoric. Sadly Ladbrokes have pulled their market on this year’s London Mayoral election having the widest margin of victory. As we can see above the attempts to smear Sadiq Khan fail badly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sadiq Khan instruct m’learned…
Tory MPs are deluding themselves if they think we are heading for a 1992 redux (or indeed 2015 redux). I can only hope they are willing to back up their convictions over on the Betfair exchange. TSE
With the likelihood of having an election this year my mind went to think about the first general election I followed, which was 1992. As a callow thirteen year old I had Conservative leanings another thing that interested the geek in me was the statistics associated with a general election. What added to the excitement was the dawning realisation that the result was going against expectations, something we saw again in 2015 and 2017. I do not expect a repeat…
I feel confident that the insurrectionist former President will lose the Presidential election based on the available information and precedents. Last night’s South Carolina primary reinforced that, particularly the way Independents are breaking. There’s a been a real pattern over the last few years that the GOP do worse than the opinion polls suggests whilst inevitably the Dems do better. TSE
With the news that the political gadfly Lee Anderson has been suspended from the Tory party, not for his comments, but for his inability to apologise I wonder if Reform are about to get their first MP. In November Lee Anderson admitted that he was offered ‘a lot of money’ to join Reform UK, the then Tory deputy chairman was secretly taped claiming that the party Farage built is tapping up MPs amid accusations of £430,000 ‘bribes’ to defect. Prior…