For the past few years I have expected the Tories to do badly because tactical voting and if you look at those relative net favourability figures for Sunak, Farage, and their parties compared to Labour and the Lib Dems this seems to confirm my expectation. This means the Tories & Reform should do (much) worse than UNS suggests. TSE
Tonight sees the ridiculously premature American Presidential debate and this is a potential game changer and I can see this being the only debate of the campaign and if one of the candidates has a shocker it might be the narrative of the campaign. TSE
When Rishi Sunak debates Sir Keir Starmer in head to heads Sunak often displays the anguish of a man with a wasp trapped under his foreskin, tonight he seemed a bit more feisty if we had seen more of this I suspect the campaign would have been a bit different. I suspect this debate will not change the fundamentals, Sunak is the worst rated PM at the eve of an election and the same applies to his government. In around…
I feel like the Ancient Mariner boring anybody I meet telling just how bad it is looking for the Tories. Two MRPs today are just further proof that the Tories are about to experience their Götterdämmerung on July 4th. This is the stand out observation from the WeThink MRP ‘This means the Conservatives substantially underperform uniform swing. While Reform takes the most Conservative votes, Labour reaps the rewards. In every constituency, voters are taking the opportunity to kick the government’….
The two phone pollsters Ipsos and Survation give largely the same results which are inline with the shellacking the online pollsters indicate. The Ipsos satisfaction ratings show the pickle Sunak and the Tories are in and given that Ipsos have been polling for nearly fifty years so allows to put the current numbers into context. The worry for Starmer and Labour is that historically his ratings are quite poor and like Boris Johnson he’s only winning mostly because his opponents…
The Press Association have published their expected declaration times which is useful if you’re not planning to stay up all night long. The early results may give us indication if the MRPs are right and which one is looking to be the gold standard of MRPs. Five out of the first eight seats expected to declare are in the North East of England plus Basildon & Billericay and they be a very good indicator if Reform are surging to a…
Longstanding readers of PB know I am not a fan of constituency polls because it is very hard to get a representative sample and in 2015, outside of Scotland, the constituency polls were as accurate as an American war movie. I am surprised by this polling as I expected Corbyn to win, he’s been the MP for the area for 41 years and there is anecdotal stories that some people in the constituency think he is still the Labour candidate…
Many of us have been pointing out for a while that under SIr Keir Starmer Labour’s vote efficiency is improving to truly impressive levels but there is a potential downside as highlighted in the second tweet. Once the results come through on July the 5th and the results show a massive Labour majority in terms of seats but on very small majorities in terms of votes that could see what I discussed yesterday about Starmer winning a massive majority which…