politicalbetting.com – Page 935 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general election spreadsheet

7/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Regular political betting readers will remember with much affection (and well-upholstered bank accounts) the spreadsheet that AndyJS produced for the EU referendum, setting out the expected For 2017, he has prepared a constituency by constituency summary in order of their declaration in 2015, with the 2010 and 2015 tallies for each party. Using this, we should be able to identify patterns and trends more quickly, given that declarations are likely in practice to be in a fairly similar approximate order…

Read More Read More

Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?

7/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The opinion polls have obscured the view of what’s happening in the election rather than clarifying it. But bettors remain convinced of the following: The Conservatives are going to do better than most of the polling would suggest on an application of uniform national swing. The under/over line is set with Ladbrokes at 360.5, while the recent Opinium poll (which is fairly mainstream) would imply 349 seats. Labour are going to do worse than most of the polling would suggest…

Read More Read More

All you need is Gove, Gove, Gove is all you need Mrs May

6/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/870618761887453184 Mrs May needs not only a Willie, but also a Sir Keith Joseph If Mrs May wants to emulate the success of Mrs Thatcher, I’ve said before she needs a Willie, but assuming Mrs May wins a majority on Thursday, what this campaign has exposed is that she needs better support and advisers, as ‘the vision thing’ is lacking, as exemplified by the disastrous announcement of the social care changes that led many opponents to characterise it as a…

Read More Read More

The first of the final polls from the most accurate online firm at GE2015

6/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Our final poll of the general election campaign gives the Conservatives a lead of 7 points over Labour #ge2017 https://t.co/B511292P2W pic.twitter.com/gMrz5dywHm — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) June 6, 2017 Opinium has CON lead up 1 LDs up 2 We are going to see a lot of these in the next 36 hours – the final polls on which, rightly or wrongly, the pollsters will be judged. Opinium has had a good record recently. It got the London Mayoral race spot on,…

Read More Read More

Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to happen when they’re clearly ahead

6/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Nate Silver’s 538 Why we shouldn’t rely on the “add a few points to the CON poll shares” this time One of the ongoing themes of this election is that the polls always understate the Tories. Certainly there have been a lot of instances where that has happened as the chart from 538 above illustrates. But it is a lot more subtle than that. Just go through it general election by general election. The polls were almost running level last…

Read More Read More

New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

5/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Unlike virtually every other pollster Survation reports its finding down to one decimal point and the latest phone poll for Good Morning Britain shows the significance of this. With normal rounding it would be a 2% CON lead when the actual margin is 1.1% The figures: CON 41.5% LAB 40.4% LD 6% UKIP 3%. Without rounding the figures are – CON 42% (-5); LAB 40% (+10); LD 6% (-2); UKIP 3% (-1); Others 9% (-2) There’s been a dearth of…

Read More Read More

A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

5/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

The prospect of a landslide’s now being averted I was an eye witness to the last terror attack in London on March 24th. As walked into New Palace Yard at Westminster on that afternoon I heard one of the shots that killed Khalid Masood and saw him and his victim PC Keith Archer laying on the cobbles, before I was ushered indoors by security staff. . The following day in the Commons I was impressed at the way both Theresa…

Read More Read More

Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation

5/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If the gamblers are right then it’s a 70+ CON majority Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017. The latest ICM, with its post-GE2015 turnout model has CON with a 11% lead which would see TMay meet her goal of having an increased majority. The YouGov model continues to have the lead at just 4% and seat projections suggesting that the Tories will be 20 seats…

Read More Read More