It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as the Maginot Line

It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as the Maginot Line

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#GE2017: Bury North:Lab: 53.6% (+12.5)Con: 44.5% (+2.5)LDem: 1.9% (-0.2) pic.twitter.com/skBkQypyHR — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Labour expecting to take Glasgow North, Cardiff North, Morley & Outwood and Gower. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Though the blame should be focused on Mrs May and Nick ‘Labour sleeper agent’ Timothy #GE2017: Battersea:Lab: 45.9% (+9.1)Con: 41.5% (-10.8)LDem: 8.0% (+3.6)Ind: 2.2% (+2.3)Grn: 1.6% (-1.7)UKIP: 0.6% (-2.5) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Recounts likely in Hastings & Rye and…

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If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister, then you should be.

If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister, then you should be.

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If you're not mentally prepared for Corbyn as PM after the election then you should be. pic.twitter.com/x2cwzjnDPh — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 So far this is utter vindication for Corbyn's approach to article 50 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 Labour HOLD Wrexham.Tories were hoping to take this. pic.twitter.com/cOfRzPxNIX — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 #GE2017: Wrexham:Lab: 48.9% (+11.7)Con: 43.7% (+12.0)PC: 5.0% (-2.6)LDem: 2.4% (-2.9)No UKIP. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 Labour HOLD Darlington.Should have been…

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The Swindon North result presages a very poor night for the Tories

The Swindon North result presages a very poor night for the Tories

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#GE2017: North Swindon:Con: 53.6% (+3.3)Lab: 38.4% (+10.6)LDem: 3.6% (+0.3)UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5)Grn: 1.6% (-1.7) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 8, 2017 Swindon N worse for the Conservatives than the exit poll. This is all much more fun than I expected… — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) June 8, 2017 Labour up 10 points in Swindon North – which Ed Balls points out wasn't in the top 100 target seats for Jeremy Corbyn — Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) June 8, 2017 I've been told by…

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Calamity for May as exit poll shows the Tory majority wiped out

Calamity for May as exit poll shows the Tory majority wiped out

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Blimey. May oversees the wipeout of the Tory majority. Though the 2015 exit poll had the Tories on 316. pic.twitter.com/xlMlVcSwxu — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2017 Craig Oliver: "This is the biggest gamble a politician has taken for a long time and if the exit poll is right it will have failed." — Edward Malnick (@malnick) June 8, 2017 The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM, — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2017 No…

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Remember how at EURef Newcastle and Sunderland gave us the first pointers as to what was to come

Remember how at EURef Newcastle and Sunderland gave us the first pointers as to what was to come

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What can we expect from tonight first declarations? Newcastle East The 2015 result in Newcastle East now being tipped to be the first seat to declare. Should be easy LAB hold but how will CON do? pic.twitter.com/Fs6bnx27EM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 Houghton & Sunderland South GE2015 result from Houghton & Sunderland S also being tipped to be one of the first to declare pic.twitter.com/eFBVpQufuB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 On June 23rd lat year it…

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The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest betting

The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest betting

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Headline voting intentions from our final #GE2017 poll for @standardnews https://t.co/fgzdOQg4bZ #infographic #dataviz pic.twitter.com/5b9bhzjHde — Ipsos UK (@IpsosUK) June 8, 2017 Working on the survey that really matters – the exit poll The exit poll in action – hundreds of Ipsos MORI and GFK pollsters in marginal seats across Britain. #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/pLA68ygBMt — Ben Page (@benatipsos) June 8, 2017 The betting sees CON rise curbed but still big majority LAB seats up above 200 on the spreadsSPIN 203-209 SpreadEx 201-207https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1…

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At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017 right?

At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017 right?

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No one can accuse the pollsters of herding this time With just one firm still to publish, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard, the above Wikipedia list looks like the almost final polling table of 2017. The variation between the firms is simply amazing and unprecedented in any previous general election. One thing is for certain some reputations will be made tonight and some will be trashed. In many ways I admire the bravery of those pollsters who have not felt the…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

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On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions. Listen here Follow this week’s guests: @keiranpedley @mikesmithsonpb @tseofpb