Those who rubbished Survation and the YouGov model look pretty stupid now

Those who rubbished Survation and the YouGov model look pretty stupid now

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Final polling table. Actual GB shares CON 43.5%LAB 41%LD 7.6%SNP 3.1%UKIP 1.9%GRN 1.7% pic.twitter.com/4RZp28vEa2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2017 The finalisation of the count in Kensington means that we now can compute the final actual voting share percentages for GE17 the ones against which the pollsters should be judged. These are for GB only excluding Northern Ireland. What is very striking is how understated the Labour share was with some huge variations in the wrong direction. Those pollsters…

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Why TMay must stay – for now

Why TMay must stay – for now

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There is much to be getting on with, including leadership election reform A minority government propped up on a vote-by-vote basis by a minor party where the government, even including the ally, only has a majority of about 13 (once Sinn Fein are excluded), is about as strong and stable as a three-legged gazelle roller-skating across ice. In normal circumstances, not only would this not be a parliament likely to go the distance, it would do well to reach a…

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How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of political betting

How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of political betting

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Above the is the chart from Betdata.io of the final 12 hours of betting on an overall majority. Here we see the immediate impact of the exit poll followed by sentiment turning for a while to the Tories doing it only for the harsh reality of the result to set in. This is the third general election in succession where ahead of the exit poll punters had it wrong. Before GE2010 the view was the the Tories would win a…

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Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

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Thursday night’s drama was hugely enjoyable.  There’s nothing I enjoy more than a series of unfolding surprises.  It’s led us to a whole new political landscape, with a whole new range of political problems to chew over. But, to borrow a phrase that has been heard a lot this week, enough is enough.  Much though it is a blow to the ego, I have to admit that while I know a lot of information about politics I clearly do not…

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Welcome to the new politics where the young ones actually turn out to vote

Welcome to the new politics where the young ones actually turn out to vote

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My Tweet at 0924 yesterday Based on 30 minutes at polling station in marginal Bedford more young people than normal coming out to vote — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 NOTICE to young voters: Voting in greater numbers than that in the ICM and ComRes turnout models could mess up their bids to be top pollster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 I think that I can claim to to have been amongst the first on election day…

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With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic we could have an effective Tory majority thanks to Sinn Féin abstentionism

With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic we could have an effective Tory majority thanks to Sinn Féin abstentionism

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Close to a majority but no cigar pic.twitter.com/tsftilkvLw — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/873007885449662464 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/873023971351961601   Amber Rudd holds on by 346 votes, she could be PM within hours pic.twitter.com/XZyAh8m6si — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 The Tories were hoping for 1931, instead they got 1923 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 This has to be the worst political campaign in UK history, the Tory targeting in this campaign has been as accurate as an American war film. —…

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Has the 2017 general election killed Scottish nationalism stone dead?

Has the 2017 general election killed Scottish nationalism stone dead?

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REFERENDUM RETHINK? The Herald's Paul Hutcheon cites SNP sources saying #indyref2 is 'dead' https://t.co/biwc7lucWr pic.twitter.com/6ZbdKjcO7s — STV News (@STVNews) June 9, 2017 #GE2017: West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine:Con: 47.9% (+19.0)SNP: 32.5% (-9.1)Lab: 11.1% (+6.5)LDem: 8.6% (-12.8) pic.twitter.com/i9XUjYi1yV — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 #GE2017: Edinburgh West:LDem: 34.3% (+1.2)SNP: 28.6% (-10.3)Con: 21.9% (+9.6)Lab: 14.9% (+3.2)Ind: 0.3% (+0.3) pic.twitter.com/Izalj0axSD — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 9, 2017 CONSERVATIVE GAINConstituency: Stirling#GE2017 live blog: https://t.co/2FsZwH7vMH pic.twitter.com/Tu7In07pHx — STV News (@STVNews) June 9, 2017 Scottish #GE2017…

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I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May doesn’t quit as PM a Tory MP will go all Leo Amery at her very soon

I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May doesn’t quit as PM a Tory MP will go all Leo Amery at her very soon

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Reported if Theresa May doesn't get a majority she will step down … it depends by how much … if not a large margin she'll stay for a bit — Zora Suleman (@ZoraSuleman) June 9, 2017 With Brexit negotiations starting in 10 days time, Tories will have to go all magic circle/coronation for Theresa May's replacement, — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2017 Two results that sum up the awfulness of the results in England for the Tories pic.twitter.com/OybdkpjS4W — TSE…

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