Those who rubbished Survation and the YouGov model look pretty stupid now

Those who rubbished Survation and the YouGov model look pretty stupid now

The finalisation of the count in Kensington means that we now can compute the final actual voting share percentages for GE17 the ones against which the pollsters should be judged. These are for GB only excluding Northern Ireland.

What is very striking is how understated the Labour share was with some huge variations in the wrong direction. Those pollsters that had developed turnout models following GE2015 got it most wrong.

In the final few days it was very noticeable how polls that didn’t fit the prevailing CON landslide narrative came under ultra criticism from those who did not like the numbers.

Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.

This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov.

The prevailing CON big majority narrative was overwhelming and some leading pundits now have egg on their faces for following it.

Congratulations to Survation and those behind the YouGov model who are the polling heroes.

What happened on Thursday means that LAB has been understated in two of the past three elections.

Mike Smithson

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