The first of the final polls from the most accurate online firm at GE2015
Our final poll of the general election campaign gives the Conservatives a lead of 7 points over Labour #ge2017 https://t.co/B511292P2W pic.twitter.com/gMrz5dywHm
— Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) June 6, 2017
Opinium has CON lead up 1 LDs up 2
We are going to see a lot of these in the next 36 hours – the final polls on which, rightly or wrongly, the pollsters will be judged.
Opinium has had a good record recently. It got the London Mayoral race spot on, wasn’t too far out on BREXIT and was the best online pollster at GE2015.
My sense is that a 7% CON lead will be about where we finish up – the critical calculation is how that translates to seats. On the night nobody talks party vote shares this is all about the number of MPs.
At GE2015 the Tories had a GB vote share lead of 6.6%.