If the gamblers are right then it’s a 70+ CON majority
Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017.
The latest ICM, with its post-GE2015 turnout model has CON with a 11% lead which would see TMay meet her goal of having an increased majority. The YouGov model continues to have the lead at just 4% and seat projections suggesting that the Tories will be 20 seats short of a majority with almost exactly the same total as David Cameron achieved in 2010.
Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place
Meanwhile a fierce debate goes on over which has got this right. Punters, however, are not phased by the polls showing a declining CON lead and continue to risk their money on a substantial CON majority.
Expect more polling in the next few hours.
Me – I’m not changing my big betting position that the Tories will below 393 seats.