New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

Unlike virtually every other pollster Survation reports its finding down to one decimal point and the latest phone poll for Good Morning Britain shows the significance of this. With normal rounding it would be a 2% CON lead when the actual margin is 1.1%

The figures: CON 41.5% LAB 40.4% LD 6% UKIP 3%. Without rounding the figures are – CON 42% (-5); LAB 40% (+10); LD 6% (-2); UKIP 3% (-1); Others 9% (-2)

There’s been a dearth of phone polls in this campaign with only Survation and Ipsos MORI still operating in this manner. The other main phone pollsters from GE2015, ComRes and ICM, are now exclusively online – a communication methodology with which they are untested in a general election.

Tonight’s latest numbers just reinforce the gap between the two groups of firms polling this election – those with double digit leads and those with low single digit ones.

I have no idea which group of pollsters will be proved right and I am not making a call. The big overall trend is that the CON lead has narrowed. What we will have to wait three days too find out is whether TMay gets a comfortable majority, a small one like Cameron secured two years ago or no majority at all.

When asked what they thought the outcome would be 23% of those sampled by Survation said a large majority, and 41% a small majority.

Mike Smithson

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