GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

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Alastair Meeks looks at the betting implications What to make of the polling?  Are the Conservatives out of sight or are we in hung Parliament territory?  Everyone has their own theory and many of them are contradictory.  I’m not proposing in this thread to go into the question of whether the young or previous non-voters are going to unleash a crimson tide.  This is fast becoming a question of theology rather than psephology, at least until Thursday. There are other…

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The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

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Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 Mrs May has picked the worst time for her ratings to crater With polls ranging from a Tory lead of 1% to 12%, and recent polling failures, it is wise to look at the various satisfaction/well/badly leadership ratings  because they (coupled with best/most trusted on the economy) have consistently predicted the winner…

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NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

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On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from Britainelects.com to discuss the weekend’s polls as the campaign enters the final week. Ben is part of a team of students that run the Britain Elects twitter account and website that collects polling data and local election results. It’s an invaluable tool now followed by more than 129,000 people on twitter. A real accomplishment and it was a pleasure to have Ben on. Listen to the…

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Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

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May spokesmn: "Conservative party will not be campaigning nationally today. We will review as day goes on &as more details of attack emerge" — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 4, 2017 Calls for General Election to be suspended after second major terror attack within two weeks #LondonAttack https://t.co/fn6mDPuhqU — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 4, 2017 After last night’s appalling attack in London, the Tories and the SNP have suspended their national campaigns, and the other parties are set to follow suit,…

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UPDATED Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s 1%

UPDATED Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s 1%

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It a massive night of polls with the election just five days away. So far we’ve had four: Opinium/Observer was Con 43%-2 LAB 37%+2 LD 6%-1 UKIP 5%= ComRes online for Indy/S Mirror CON 47%+1 LAB 35% +1, LD 8%= , UKIP 4%= Survation online MoS CON 40%-6 LAB 39% +5 LD 8%= UKIP 5% Orb for Telegraph CON 45+1 LAB 36-2 LD 8 (+1) UKIP 4 (-1) YouGov S Times CON 42%= LAB: 38%-1 LD 9%+2 UKIP: 4%= ICM/Sun…

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If you have system like first past the post then don’t get upset if voters try to game it

If you have system like first past the post then don’t get upset if voters try to game it

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Poll finds twice as many saying they’ll vote tactically The above poll by BMG for the Electoral Reform Society, is striking because when exactly the same question was asked by the same pollster before GE2015 just 9% said they were ready to vote tactically. The total of 200% seems high but could reflect partly UKIP not standing in many seats and also the situation facing the LDs is nothing like it was at the end of the coalition. Far fewer…

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Why Theresa May will be hoping for another polling industry failure on June 8th

Why Theresa May will be hoping for another polling industry failure on June 8th

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If there is another polling failure Theresa May can argue she didn’t blow a 25% lead against Corbyn because such a lead never existed. Looking at that chart above, it makes for unpleasant reading if you’re a Tory. Pretty much with every pollster that has consistently polled during this election campaign, the  Tory lead has shrunk a lot. Success equals performance minus anticipation. At the start of the campaign the polls indicated Labour were in for such a shellacking that…

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CON majority still an 80% betting chance

CON majority still an 80% betting chance

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TMay has done herself good tonight So that was the big set-piece of the campaign and I thought it was good programme well put together with a really excellent audience. TMay found herself having to answer direct question for just about the first time and looked the better for it. Platitudes weren’t going to work in this context. Corbyn faced tough questioning as well and there’s no doubt that his position on defence issues is a big negative. What’s the…

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