Harry Hayfield on whether they’re a pointer to Thursday There have been 588 local by-elections during this Parliament in which a total of 1,029,887 votes have been cast. These are not virtual votes cast in opinion polls, or online, but physical votes in physical ballot boxes up and down the country. Overall these votes (and seat wins) have split as follows: Con 30%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 7%, SNP 6%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Plaid 0.77%, Others 3%…
With just six days to go the news this morning has been dreadful for TMay and her CON party. First we had confirmation from the Crown Prosecution Service that three people are to face charges over party expenses at Thanet south at GE2015. Now we have have a poll from the firm that’s been doing political surveys in the UK longer than anybody else – Ipsos MORI. Their last survey, before the manifesto launch and Manchester had CON with a…
ICM online polls for the Sun on Sunday and Guardian YouGov online polls for Times/S Times It is one of the overwhelming features of this election that the Tories have a huge advantage with the oldies – those aged 65 or more. So as was widely observed at the time of TMay’s manifesto launch her moves to limit winter fuel allowance and introduce what has become widely known as the dementia tax was a huge risk. I’ve no doubt that…
Wikipedia An election that seemed so easy to call is now a lot tighter There was a time only a couple of weeks ago when every new YouGov poll led to huge attacks from Labour and Corbyn supporters that the firm that was Tory led acting in the interests of TMay’s party. Not any more. It is YouGov that is giving the red team their best numbers and now the attacks are coming from the other side. We’ve seen several…
TMay’s YouGov “best PM” lead down 25 points in 2 months TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2017 On Betfair CON majority chances down from 96% to 80% The controversial YouGov model – today’s projections YouGov 2017 election model results (1 June)CON 42%, 285-353 seatsLAB 38%, 219-285 seatsFor full results visit: https://t.co/1eYpO4jRQq pic.twitter.com/qkTX5ITAMX — YouGov (@YouGov) June 1, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow…
On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments. Chris Curtis explains the background to this week’s controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it. Later in the show, the panel discuss why…
And LAB buy level now above 200 seats There’s been a big shake-up in the betting following the publication by the Times of YouGov’s new election model that suggests that Team Theresa could be net losers of seats a week tomorrow and not have a majority. Latest CON seats spreads SportingIndex 365-371 Spreadex 365-371 Latest LAB spreads both SportingIndex 195-201 and Spreadex 196-202 Latest LD spreads both SportingIndex 12.5-14-5 and Spreadex 12-14.5 To put this into context. Just after the…
Alastair Meeks looks at the possibilities & the bets All the sensible people had decided. The Conservatives’ epic leads of the early part of the election campaign may have dissipated in part, but they remained set for a hefty overall majority. Then YouGov published their first seat-by-seat estimates, which to the consternation of many showed a hung Parliament. The reaction of far too many has been that this cannot possibly be right. Even before YouGov’s analysis came out, I explained…