With just six days to go the news this morning has been dreadful for TMay and her CON party. First we had confirmation from the Crown Prosecution Service that three people are to face charges over party expenses at Thanet south at GE2015.
Now we have have a poll from the firm that’s been doing political surveys in the UK longer than anybody else – Ipsos MORI. Their last survey, before the manifesto launch and Manchester had CON with a 15% lead. Today that is down to just 5% which is less than the winning margin at GE2015.
The figures we have are CON 45, LAB 40, LD 7. So far we haven’t had the data or the leader satisfaction ratings.
There is little doubt that things have turned and the big question is whether the Tories can recover in the final few days to achieve a working majority.
Ipsos MORI is the only firm left still doing regular phone polls although Survation has had one or two during the campaign. The other phone pollsters from GE2015, ICM and ComRes, are now producing just online polls a methodology which for them has yet to be tested in a general election.
Ipsos MORI is amongst the leading pollsters which made changes to their methodology following the GE2105 polling fail.