Both ICM and YouGov find CON dominance amongst the oldies is not as strong as before the manifesto launch
ICM online polls for the Sun on Sunday and Guardian
YouGov online polls for Times/S Times
It is one of the overwhelming features of this election that the Tories have a huge advantage with the oldies – those aged 65 or more. So as was widely observed at the time of TMay’s manifesto launch her moves to limit winter fuel allowance and introduce what has become widely known as the dementia tax was a huge risk.
I’ve no doubt that in the serious post election academic analysis then this will feature largely and we’ll get a full picture of how it impacted on the race and the outcome.
In the meantime I’ve been through the ICM and YouGov datasets to see if there was a discernible trend that could possibly linked to the manifesto launch on May 18th. The charts above are the result.
As George Osborne found in his inheritance tax move in October 2007 when Gordon Brown was said to be planning an election this has a lot of potency. Seeking to pass something onto to the next generation is an enormous motivator for voters as they grow older.
The dementia tax and TMay’s u-turn has been the key feature of this election. It has probably not cost her the election but has impacted on the scale of the victory.