An election that seemed so easy to call is now a lot tighter
There was a time only a couple of weeks ago when every new YouGov poll led to huge attacks from Labour and Corbyn supporters that the firm that was Tory led acting in the interests of TMay’s party. Not any more. It is YouGov that is giving the red team their best numbers and now the attacks are coming from the other side.
We’ve seen several more GB polls today as well as one for Wales and another one for London. The message from just about all of them is that the race is getting closer. Most firms have TMay in single figures.
The critical calculation to make is how much a poll lead is at variance with the GB CON margin on 6.6% that was enough at GE2015 to give Mr. Cameron and now Mrs. May a majority.
Under standard swing theory the Tories should be gaining seats if they secure a gap of 6.6% or more next Thursday and suffer seat losses if their national vote share is much below that.
For me what’s been significant is that Theresa May now making visits not just to targets which they hope to gain to but seats they already hold. That reflects a certain loss of confidence.
As to the big polling picture it is hard to come to any conclusion. Is it YouGov or the others that has this right? I don’t know but I have been surprised at the tightness of the race that is reflected in the YouGov polling. We’ll know at about 2am on June 9th.