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All you need is Gove, Gove, Gove is all you need Mrs May

6/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/870618761887453184 Mrs May needs not only a Willie, but also a Sir Keith Joseph If Mrs May wants to emulate the success of Mrs Thatcher, I’ve said before she needs a Willie, but assuming Mrs May wins a majority on Thursday, what this campaign has exposed is that she needs better support and advisers, as ‘the vision thing’ is lacking, as exemplified by the disastrous announcement of the social care changes that led many opponents to characterise it as a…

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The first of the final polls from the most accurate online firm at GE2015

6/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Our final poll of the general election campaign gives the Conservatives a lead of 7 points over Labour #ge2017 https://t.co/B511292P2W pic.twitter.com/gMrz5dywHm — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) June 6, 2017 Opinium has CON lead up 1 LDs up 2 We are going to see a lot of these in the next 36 hours – the final polls on which, rightly or wrongly, the pollsters will be judged. Opinium has had a good record recently. It got the London Mayoral race spot on,…

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Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to happen when they’re clearly ahead

6/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Nate Silver’s 538 Why we shouldn’t rely on the “add a few points to the CON poll shares” this time One of the ongoing themes of this election is that the polls always understate the Tories. Certainly there have been a lot of instances where that has happened as the chart from 538 above illustrates. But it is a lot more subtle than that. Just go through it general election by general election. The polls were almost running level last…

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New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down to 1.1%

5/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Unlike virtually every other pollster Survation reports its finding down to one decimal point and the latest phone poll for Good Morning Britain shows the significance of this. With normal rounding it would be a 2% CON lead when the actual margin is 1.1% The figures: CON 41.5% LAB 40.4% LD 6% UKIP 3%. Without rounding the figures are – CON 42% (-5); LAB 40% (+10); LD 6% (-2); UKIP 3% (-1); Others 9% (-2) There’s been a dearth of…

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A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

5/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

The prospect of a landslide’s now being averted I was an eye witness to the last terror attack in London on March 24th. As walked into New Palace Yard at Westminster on that afternoon I heard one of the shots that killed Khalid Masood and saw him and his victim PC Keith Archer laying on the cobbles, before I was ushered indoors by security staff. . The following day in the Commons I was impressed at the way both Theresa…

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Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation

5/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If the gamblers are right then it’s a 70+ CON majority Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017. The latest ICM, with its post-GE2015 turnout model has CON with a 11% lead which would see TMay meet her goal of having an increased majority. The YouGov model continues to have the lead at just 4% and seat projections suggesting that the Tories will be 20 seats…

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GE2017 heralds the return of two party politics

5/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks looks at the betting implications What to make of the polling? Are the Conservatives out of sight or are we in hung Parliament territory? Everyone has their own theory and many of them are contradictory. I’m not proposing in this thread to go into the question of whether the young or previous non-voters are going to unleash a crimson tide. This is fast becoming a question of theology rather than psephology, at least until Thursday. There are other…

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The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

4/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 Mrs May has picked the worst time for her ratings to crater With polls ranging from a Tory lead of 1% to 12%, and recent polling failures, it is wise to look at the various satisfaction/well/badly leadership ratings because they (coupled with best/most trusted on the economy) have consistently predicted the winner…

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