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NEW Bonus PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reviewing the weekend’s polls

4/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

On a bonus episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Ben Walker from Britainelects.com to discuss the weekend’s polls as the campaign enters the final week. Ben is part of a team of students that run the Britain Elects twitter account and website that collects polling data and local election results. It’s an invaluable tool now followed by more than 129,000 people on twitter. A real accomplishment and it was a pleasure to have Ben on. Listen to the…

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Whilst it is understandable national campaigning has been suspended, the general election must not be suspended

4/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

May spokesmn: "Conservative party will not be campaigning nationally today. We will review as day goes on &as more details of attack emerge" — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 4, 2017 Calls for General Election to be suspended after second major terror attack within two weeks #LondonAttack https://t.co/fn6mDPuhqU — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 4, 2017 After last night’s appalling attack in London, the Tories and the SNP have suspended their national campaigns, and the other parties are set to follow suit,…

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UPDATED Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s 1%

3/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It a massive night of polls with the election just five days away. So far we’ve had four: Opinium/Observer was Con 43%-2 LAB 37%+2 LD 6%-1 UKIP 5%= ComRes online for Indy/S Mirror CON 47%+1 LAB 35% +1, LD 8%= , UKIP 4%= Survation online MoS CON 40%-6 LAB 39% +5 LD 8%= UKIP 5% Orb for Telegraph CON 45+1 LAB 36-2 LD 8 (+1) UKIP 4 (-1) YouGov S Times CON 42%= LAB: 38%-1 LD 9%+2 UKIP: 4%= ICM/Sun…

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If you have system like first past the post then don’t get upset if voters try to game it

3/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Poll finds twice as many saying they’ll vote tactically The above poll by BMG for the Electoral Reform Society, is striking because when exactly the same question was asked by the same pollster before GE2015 just 9% said they were ready to vote tactically. The total of 200% seems high but could reflect partly UKIP not standing in many seats and also the situation facing the LDs is nothing like it was at the end of the coalition. Far fewer…

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Why Theresa May will be hoping for another polling industry failure on June 8th

3/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

If there is another polling failure Theresa May can argue she didn’t blow a 25% lead against Corbyn because such a lead never existed. Looking at that chart above, it makes for unpleasant reading if you’re a Tory. Pretty much with every pollster that has consistently polled during this election campaign, the Tory lead has shrunk a lot. Success equals performance minus anticipation. At the start of the campaign the polls indicated Labour were in for such a shellacking that…

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CON majority still an 80% betting chance

2/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

TMay has done herself good tonight So that was the big set-piece of the campaign and I thought it was good programme well put together with a really excellent audience. TMay found herself having to answer direct question for just about the first time and looked the better for it. Platitudes weren’t going to work in this context. Corbyn faced tough questioning as well and there’s no doubt that his position on defence issues is a big negative. What’s the…

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Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament

2/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Harry Hayfield on whether they’re a pointer to Thursday There have been 588 local by-elections during this Parliament in which a total of 1,029,887 votes have been cast. These are not virtual votes cast in opinion polls, or online, but physical votes in physical ballot boxes up and down the country. Overall these votes (and seat wins) have split as follows: Con 30%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 7%, SNP 6%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Plaid 0.77%, Others 3%…

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Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the party down 10 points in its latest poll

2/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With just six days to go the news this morning has been dreadful for TMay and her CON party. First we had confirmation from the Crown Prosecution Service that three people are to face charges over party expenses at Thanet south at GE2015. Now we have have a poll from the firm that’s been doing political surveys in the UK longer than anybody else – Ipsos MORI. Their last survey, before the manifesto launch and Manchester had CON with a…

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