Both ICM and YouGov find CON dominance amongst the oldies is not as strong as before the manifesto launch

Both ICM and YouGov find CON dominance amongst the oldies is not as strong as before the manifesto launch

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ICM online polls for the Sun on Sunday and Guardian YouGov online polls for Times/S Times It is one of the overwhelming features of this election that the Tories have a huge advantage with the oldies – those aged 65 or more. So as was widely observed at the time of TMay’s manifesto launch her moves to limit winter fuel allowance and introduce what has become widely known as the dementia tax was a huge risk. I’ve no doubt that…

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Another day of the polls tightening but only YouGov has TMay not securing a majority

Another day of the polls tightening but only YouGov has TMay not securing a majority

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Wikipedia An election that seemed so easy to call is now a lot tighter There was a time only a couple of weeks ago when every new YouGov poll led to huge attacks from Labour and Corbyn supporters that the firm that was Tory led acting in the interests of TMay’s party. Not any more. It is YouGov that is giving the red team their best numbers and now the attacks are coming from the other side. We’ve seen several…

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More worrying numbers for Team Theresa as doubts amongst punters rise

More worrying numbers for Team Theresa as doubts amongst punters rise

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TMay’s YouGov “best PM” lead down 25 points in 2 months TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2017 On Betfair CON majority chances down from 96% to 80% The controversial YouGov model – today’s projections YouGov 2017 election model results (1 June)CON 42%, 285-353 seatsLAB 38%, 219-285 seatsFor full results visit: https://t.co/1eYpO4jRQq pic.twitter.com/qkTX5ITAMX — YouGov (@YouGov) June 1, 2017 Mike Smithson Follow…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum

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On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments. Chris Curtis explains the background to this week’s controversial YouGov model seen in the Times that has suggested we might be facing a hung parliament. Curtis explains what is behind the model, its limitations and how we should read it. Later in the show, the panel discuss why…

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Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets

Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets

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And LAB buy level now above 200 seats There’s been a big shake-up in the betting following the publication by the Times of YouGov’s new election model that suggests that Team Theresa could be net losers of seats a week tomorrow and not have a majority. Latest CON seats spreads SportingIndex 365-371 Spreadex 365-371 Latest LAB spreads both SportingIndex 195-201 and Spreadex 196-202 Latest LD spreads both SportingIndex 12.5-14-5 and Spreadex 12-14.5 To put this into context. Just after the…

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What if this latest from YouGov proves to be correct?

What if this latest from YouGov proves to be correct?

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Alastair Meeks looks at the possibilities & the bets All the sensible people had decided.  The Conservatives’ epic leads of the early part of the election campaign may have dissipated in part, but they remained set for a hefty overall majority. Then YouGov published their first seat-by-seat estimates, which to the consternation of many showed a hung Parliament. The reaction of far too many has been that this cannot possibly be right.  Even before YouGov’s analysis came out, I explained…

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On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority

On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority

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The front page of The Times made me say a phrase that rhymes with 'clucking bell' pic.twitter.com/p6f9QtQfZc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2017 Tonight: we reveal YouGov's first seat by seat projection of the campaign – suggests Tories fall 16 seats short of overall majority pic.twitter.com/8ouPRHTZ7m — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) May 30, 2017 Tonight's YouGov data, which will be updated daily between now and polling day, based on complex model and 7,000 sample over 7 days pic.twitter.com/MzpXXifBFX — Sam…

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Youth and experience. Turnout among 18-24 year olds and past non-voters

Youth and experience. Turnout among 18-24 year olds and past non-voters

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  In the summer of 1969, I was not yet two years old.  The world watched in awe as Apollo 11 landed on the moon.  My parents sat me in front of the television set so that I could say in years to come that I had seen it.  Of course, I don’t remember it at all. I try to keep this piece of family nostalgia in mind when thinking about how the world looks to younger voters.  The youngest…

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