Author & ex-political journalist, Robert Harris, suggests TMay might be making Heath’s 1974 mistake

Author & ex-political journalist, Robert Harris, suggests TMay might be making Heath’s 1974 mistake

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May reminiscent of Heath in 74. Called an opportunistic election when far ahead in polls & then campaign unravelled under scrutiny — Robert Harris (@Robert___Harris) May 29, 2017 During the big C4/Sky News event last night the best-selling author and former political journalist, Robert Harris, posted the above tweet pointing to the similarities between TMay going to the country three years early and Heath’s calling of the February 1974 election with a possible year and a half still to go….

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On Betfair the chances of a CON majority edges to lowest level since election was called

On Betfair the chances of a CON majority edges to lowest level since election was called

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Was a 95% chance – now 84% During tonight’s Channel 4/Sky News Corbyn/May event I monitored the Betfair overall majority market to see if there was any movement. Half a million pounds is being traded on it every day and the liquidity is there. The answer was that there was a bit of movement but it is hard to attribute this to the programme. The question now is whether the event and the coverage of it will have any impact…

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On the day of the C4/Sky News May/Corbyn event the Mail’s Quentin Letts tells TMay she’s a “glum bucket”

On the day of the C4/Sky News May/Corbyn event the Mail’s Quentin Letts tells TMay she’s a “glum bucket”

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The expression on TMay's face after Quentin Letts of the Daily Mail calls her a #glumbucket pic.twitter.com/2UTqLJt9C0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 29, 2017 Tonight at 8.30pm we have the first big set-piece with TMay and Corbyn appearing before a live studio audience on Channel 4 and Sky News. They won’t debate directly with each other – TMay ruled that out from the beginning. But she’ll face questioning from the audience and from Jeremy Paxman. Neither leader is particularly good…

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TMay’s much repeated assertion that Corbyn becomes PM if CON loses 6 seats doesn’t stand up to scrutiny

TMay’s much repeated assertion that Corbyn becomes PM if CON loses 6 seats doesn’t stand up to scrutiny

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IF she lost 6 seats, AND Sinn Fein took its seats AND DUP, UUP & Sylvia Hermon backed Corbyn, he STILL cdn't become PM because @JWoodcockMP — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 29, 2017 Starting 99 seats ahead gives the PM a big cushion One of the practices that is followed at general election times is for comparisons to be made with what happened at the election before not taking into account defections or by-elections. So for the purposes of comparison…

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It’s the economy, stupid. And Team Corbyn aren’t stupid.

It’s the economy, stupid. And Team Corbyn aren’t stupid.

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Don Brind on final phase of the LAB campaign It may all end in tears but for now the diverse team of Corbyn fans and old media sweats who make the Leader of the Opposition comms team can pride themselves on helping the party and their leader to narrow the yawning gap in the polls since Theresa May called the snap election the best part of a month ago. Because they are smart I expect them to make a decisive switch to highlight…

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Memo to the Labour party, stop sending Diane Abbott to do interviews for the rest of the campaign

Memo to the Labour party, stop sending Diane Abbott to do interviews for the rest of the campaign

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I’ve only just caught up with the quite literally hair raising interview with Diane Abbott had on this morning’s The Andrew Marr show. If you can’t watch the video above here’s an excerpt from The Spectator. When Marr moved onto Abbott’s questionable views on the IRA, she came up with an even more novel answer. Comparing her words of support for the IRA to her decision to have an afro, Abbott said her views — like her hair — have…

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Analysing Labour’s rise in the polls

Analysing Labour’s rise in the polls

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Popular policies might be the explanation for Labour’s increase in the polls since the start of the campaign At the start of this general election campaign, I thought there was a chance that my 10/1 bets on Labour polling sub 20% might be in play but during this general election campaign if the polls are accurate, Labour’s share of the vote has risen, and Labour might end up polling close to 40%. Now there’s much discussion about what is driving up…

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The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa May can be and what sort of Brexit and other radicalism we might see, or not see from her

The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa May can be and what sort of Brexit and other radicalism we might see, or not see from her

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Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will win a majority Despite all the light and heat generated with recent polling, I still expect the Tories to win a majority, unless Nick Timothy decides to add another Nimitz class sized barnacle to the Tory boat between now and June 8th The Tories still lead in the polls, the leadership and economic polling also favour the blue team, but the size of the majority will determine how her…

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