Tonight’s YouGov and ORB polls have the Tory lead in the single digits – update ICM has the Tory lead at

Tonight’s YouGov and ORB polls have the Tory lead in the single digits – update ICM has the Tory lead at

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Tonight's @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc) Via @ShippersUnbound pic.twitter.com/NkUZm20Z2d — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Looks like women are behind the Corbyn surge in @ORB_Int poll. Fieldwork Wed and Thurs https://t.co/nnoHIskTIM pic.twitter.com/MP2w59QJAK — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Well if these polls turn out be accurate then Mrs May’s gamble to hold an early election will turn out be a mistake. What will keep Mrs May and CCHQ happy is…

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The first two polls of tonight show the Tory lead halving in a month

The first two polls of tonight show the Tory lead halving in a month

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The @OpiniumResearch poll Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc) Look at the leader ratings. FW Tues/Wed https://t.co/OKZIp0G1Q6 pic.twitter.com/JnPsr7bx5J — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2017 Con 12-pt lead @ComRes for @Independent & @TheSundayMirrorCon 46% -2Lab 34% +4LD 8% -2UKIP 5% 0Green 2% -1(Changes since 2 weeks ago) — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 27, 2017 Corbyn leads by 23 points on best to protect old people who need social care @ComRes for @Independent https://t.co/XuXHxV9ZUf — John…

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The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign

The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign

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The wheels have come off the wagon for Team Theresa.  Just two weeks ago the blue team’s lead looked more fearsome than the north face of the Eiger.  Theresa May looked to be cruising to victory and the saboteurs were on track to be crushed. The stocks were sold; the press was squared: the middle class was quite prepared.  But the middle class were emphatically not prepared for the Tories’ social care policy, which seems to have gone down like…

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The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes harder to predict

The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes harder to predict

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TONIGHT: Iconic psephologist @SirDavidButler tells @maitlis he's never seen such a big movement of opinion in election polls #newsnight pic.twitter.com/MSaQXOAykM — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) May 26, 2017 I spent the whole of yesterday in the sweltering heat of central London discussing with one group after another the same subject – how GE2017 had suddenly become so much harder to predict. During the morning I was at an academic conference at the British Academy on the intriguing subject of whether June…

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Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex

Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex

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The latest polling has caused a big sell of CON seats on the spread markets. With Spreadex it is now 373-379 seats. At the weekend the buy level was more than 400. SportingIndex has it slightly higher at 373-379 which means that my sell bet at 393 placed on Saturday night is now showing a nice profit. What’s nice about this form of betting is that you can take and pocket your profits well before the election has taken place….

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Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch

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New YouGov polling just published had her dipping into negative territory One of the striking features of TMay’s period at Number 10 is how she has maintained positive leadership ratings throughput. Whether pollsters were asking about approval, favourability, satisfaction, or whether she was doing a good or bad job all the numbers were positive from the moment she became PM last July. That run ended in the aftermath of the launch of the controversial General Election manifesto a week last…

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YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015

YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015

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CON lead down to 5% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/udkAz2lgyv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2017 There’s a new Times/YouGov poll that has LAB just 5% behind the Tories which s by far the smallest we have seen this year. To put this into context David Cameron won his majority in 2015 with a GB vote lead over LAB of 6.5%. This poll suggests that that could be narrowed. This latest poll was carried out yesterday and today and so fully…

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Tonight’s one local by-election

Tonight’s one local by-election

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Shoeburyness on Southend on Sea (Ind defence, death of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 25, Labour 11, Independents 10, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Liberal Democrats 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2016): Independent (Assenheim) 728 (29%), Conservative 607 (24%), Independent (Chalk) 527 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 309 (12%), Labour 236 (9%), Green Party 57 (2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (2%) EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 39,348…

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