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The Swindon North result presages a very poor night for the Tories

8/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

#GE2017: North Swindon:Con: 53.6% (+3.3)Lab: 38.4% (+10.6)LDem: 3.6% (+0.3)UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5)Grn: 1.6% (-1.7) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 8, 2017 Swindon N worse for the Conservatives than the exit poll. This is all much more fun than I expected… — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) June 8, 2017 Labour up 10 points in Swindon North – which Ed Balls points out wasn't in the top 100 target seats for Jeremy Corbyn — Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) June 8, 2017 I've been told by…

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Calamity for May as exit poll shows the Tory majority wiped out

8/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Blimey. May oversees the wipeout of the Tory majority. Though the 2015 exit poll had the Tories on 316. pic.twitter.com/xlMlVcSwxu — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2017 Craig Oliver: "This is the biggest gamble a politician has taken for a long time and if the exit poll is right it will have failed." — Edward Malnick (@malnick) June 8, 2017 The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM, — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2017 No…

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Remember how at EURef Newcastle and Sunderland gave us the first pointers as to what was to come

8/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What can we expect from tonight first declarations? Newcastle East The 2015 result in Newcastle East now being tipped to be the first seat to declare. Should be easy LAB hold but how will CON do? pic.twitter.com/Fs6bnx27EM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 Houghton & Sunderland South GE2015 result from Houghton & Sunderland S also being tipped to be one of the first to declare pic.twitter.com/eFBVpQufuB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 8, 2017 On June 23rd lat year it…

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The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest betting

8/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Headline voting intentions from our final #GE2017 poll for @standardnews https://t.co/fgzdOQg4bZ #infographic #dataviz pic.twitter.com/5b9bhzjHde — Ipsos UK (@IpsosUK) June 8, 2017 Working on the survey that really matters – the exit poll The exit poll in action – hundreds of Ipsos MORI and GFK pollsters in marginal seats across Britain. #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/pLA68ygBMt — Ben Page (@benatipsos) June 8, 2017 The betting sees CON rise curbed but still big majority LAB seats up above 200 on the spreadsSPIN 203-209 SpreadEx 201-207https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1…

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At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017 right?

8/6/2017 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

No one can accuse the pollsters of herding this time With just one firm still to publish, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard, the above Wikipedia list looks like the almost final polling table of 2017. The variation between the firms is simply amazing and unprecedented in any previous general election. One thing is for certain some reputations will be made tonight and some will be trashed. In many ways I admire the bravery of those pollsters who have not felt the…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

7/6/2017 Editor Comments 0 Comment

On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions. Listen here Follow this week’s guests: @keiranpedley @mikesmithsonpb @tseofpb

Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general election spreadsheet

7/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Regular political betting readers will remember with much affection (and well-upholstered bank accounts) the spreadsheet that AndyJS produced for the EU referendum, setting out the expected For 2017, he has prepared a constituency by constituency summary in order of their declaration in 2015, with the 2010 and 2015 tallies for each party. Using this, we should be able to identify patterns and trends more quickly, given that declarations are likely in practice to be in a fairly similar approximate order…

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Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?

7/6/2017 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The opinion polls have obscured the view of what’s happening in the election rather than clarifying it. But bettors remain convinced of the following: The Conservatives are going to do better than most of the polling would suggest on an application of uniform national swing. The under/over line is set with Ladbrokes at 360.5, while the recent Opinium poll (which is fairly mainstream) would imply 349 seats. Labour are going to do worse than most of the polling would suggest…

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