Sadly for Rishi Sunak perceptions around him are actively damaging for the Tory Party as this YouGov poll finds Rishi Sunak is seen as even less caring than the Conservative Party. Let that sink in, Sunak is seen less caring than the nasty party and the Tory plans to make the general election campaign presidential and focussed on Sunak might be as useful as a condom with holes in both ends. I am loathe to criticise people for making bets on politics…
One of the big developments in the WH2024 race is the growing interest in Michelle Obama being the Democratic nominee. This has been triggered by what was always going to be an issue over Biden- he’s 82 this year and his opponents are looking for signs that he might well be suffering from dementia. This is hardly surprising given his age and I have long taken the view that re-selecting him would be a huge gamble. One of the stories…
Betfair have this market on whether the Joe Biden will be impeached before the election. What I like about this bet is that the terms are very clear For this bet to be a winner if doesn’t require a conviction in the Senate, now House couldn’t organise an impeachment against a cabinet secretary this month I suspect they will not be able to do so against Biden given the revelations this week, backing no in this market, which represents a…
Based on the most recent polling this bet feels like a steal. My expectation is that once the election campaign starts proper the more the public get to see Susan Hall the more the Tory share of the vote will crater. The change in the voting system should also focus the minds of the electorate, I think any risk of letting the Tories in will boost Khan’s vote. I am breaking one of my cardinal rules of betting which is…
From Pip Moss The next Tory Leadership contest should be one of the most fiercely fought for some time. Rather than choosing a new Prime Minister, it is highly likely the Tories will select a new leader at the same time as coming to terms with a significant, possibly even landslide, election defeat. History is not destiny, but past contests suggest a couple of betting tips at the time of writing. A Retreat to Type Parties seem to direct inwards…
Time for him to end his vanity trip
The above maps show what happened in Scotland at the last general election. As can be seen the SNP was totally dominant with LAB reduced to a just single seat. A new Scotland poll from Ipsos just out suggests we should expect something very different at GE2024. The SNP vote lead is down to just 7%. However, this is down from a 12-point lead in May 2023 and a 10-point lead in November 2023. Voter preferences are broadly similar to…
TSE