Starmer could be the greatest of all time
This might be bad news for people betting against a 1931 style result in reverse. TSE
The East Midlands Flipchart?
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are in part a section of the Red Wall. At present we have 22 MPs, 5 in Nottingham and Derby, and the other 17 in County seats. Back in March in the PB comments I suggested that of the 8 County seats in Nottinghamshire, currently all Conservative, 5 to 7 would flip to Labour – possibly excepting Newark (Robert Jenrick) which has a majority of 22k and is no 256 on Labour’s target list according to Election…
I suspect this is sub-optimal for the Tories and Sunak
Although this polling from More in Common might be sub-optimal for Reform and Farage. Being seen as Dangerous, Idiot, and Racist isn’t how you win seats. TSE
The Tory Party’s long term problems
Ric Holden is the Tory Party Chairman who has just completed the chicken run. If he is the sort of Tory MP that will make up the parliamentary party after the election it is why the Tories are likely to have a long spell in opposition, the quality of candidates and MPs is at an all time low. TSE
A Portillo moment for a new generation?
The (literally for some) seminal moment of the 1997 general election was Defence Secretary Michael Portillo and likely next Tory leader losing his seat and according to some polls we might be headed for something even more spectacular this year. The Tories losing Richmond & Northallerton feels like a the ravens fleeing of the Tower of London of moment, I just cannot see it happening despite Sunak’s best efforts. Below are the odds from Ladbrokes for Sunak’s seat and I…
PB Predictions Competition 2024 – update!
John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain To lighten the mood a little during the long UK General Election campaign I thought I might provide a brief update on the PB Prediction Competition. Firstly, a reminder of the 10 questions that were set, including the answers for those that are settled: 1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. Answer: 11%, More in Common (7–11 Feb). 2. Date of the next…
What to do if and when crossover happens
Like CCHQ I wouldn’t be astonished to see Reform ahead of the Tories with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll in the next few days. If that happens I expect the betting markets to have a moment. We’ve been here before, back in 2010 after the first debate the Lib Dems surged from third to first in the polls thanks to Nick Clegg’s performance. The market wildly overreacted which allowed for great profits such as the Lib…
London Falling. The Capital and the election
Stodge gives his analysis on London London is home to 75 of the 650 Constituencies in the forthcoming General Election, an increase of two from 2019. At the last election, Labour “won” London with 48% of the vote, the Conservatives got 32%, the Liberal Democrats 15%, the Greens 3% and the Brexit Party 1.5%. This, however, produced no net change with Labour winning 49 seats (including Putney, their only gain in England from the Conservatives), the Conservatives winning 21 seats…