politicalbetting.com

One of my all time favourite general election constituency results is the one above which shows the absurdity of the first past the post system. Despite being elected as Labour leader under the alternative vote system Starmer has no plans to change the voting system for the UK general election so FPTP is here to stay in all its glory. As a gambler my big fear for the next general election is in the majority of constituencies we might see…

Read More Read More

Rachel Reeves tenure as Chancellor reminds me of a Yodel driver, both rarely deliver and when they do it usually is a bit of a disaster. Her and Labour’s economic chickens are coming home to roost, they spent the last election campaign ruling our direct tax increases which led to the job destroying increase in national insurance for employers. Labour also spent fourteen years deriding austerity as a deliberate choice when it is was a fiscal reality/neccesity and now they…

Read More Read More

Our Parliament is filled with new MPs with little or no experience of how to legislate. Or experience of the consequences of getting new laws wrong. There is, however, one law they need to understand above all…. It was LBJ who said: “You do not examine legislation in the light of the benefits it will convey if properly administered but in the light of the wrongs it would do and the harms it would cause if improperly administered.“ Wise advice….

Read More Read More

Let me start this article with a question. What is this building in the picture above’s age? The answer depends on your perspective. The building is called The House of the Blackheads and is in Riga, Latvia. It was originally built in 1334 as a warehouse, while Riga was part of the Hanseatic League. During WW2, Latvia was first invaded by the Soviets after the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, then by the Germans and finally by the Soviets again. This led to…

Read More Read More

Mark Carney (yes, that Mark Carney) opens as 6/5 favourite to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party Leaderhttps://t.co/DIiC9EqRU8 pic.twitter.com/Kyli4i1kId — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) January 7, 2025 My knowledge about Canadian politics is somewhat limited but I am not sure an ex banker, even an excellent one like Mark Carney, is best placed to win an election. Those more knowledgable about Canadian politics could proffer some value in this market. For puntastic potential I hope the Liberals choose François-Philippe Champagne. TSE

The screen grab above is from yesterday’s Sunday Times, like most of Starmer’s inner circle I think this is a bananas ideas for several reasons. Let us say that Badenoch proves to be a disappointment and is replaced, a new leader might experience a new leader bounce which would be sub-optimal for Labour’s chances. The memories of Gordon Brown & Theresa May and snaps elections (hyped but not held and not hyped but held) will also focus minds. Also, having…

Read More Read More

This is what I wrote in a header in July 2021 about the Online Safety Bill – now the Online Safety Act 2023. This introduces the novel and alarming principle that internet companies should have a “duty of care” to remove content which “may” cause “psychological harm”. Not will cause. Not content which is criminal. Not a “harm” which is clearly defined. But this vague catch-all which treats the public as little babies to be coddled rather than as sentient…

Read More Read More

Many years ago the late Charles Stallard, father of the current Bishop of Llandaff and much the wisest man I have ever known, said to me that while a loyal Liberal Democrat he would probably vote for any party that agreed to do nothing in education or health for ten years. His logic was that every time you meddle, you create work, waste time and lose money. It would be better to have a prolonged period of calm to allow…

Read More Read More