The defection of Natalie Elphicke looks like a short term mistake by Starmer. I don’t think this is because voters dislike defectors as Opinium note ‘The public lean towards believing that letting in Dan Poulter was the right decision (28% right vs 21% wrong), but tend to think it was the wrong decision to let in Natalie Elphicke (16% right vs 33% wrong)’ although that might be down to the fact Dan Poulter is a doctor and everybody loves a…
One of the things I thought that might cause problems for Joe Biden was anti-vaccine grifter RFK Jr using his family’s name to siphon off votes from Joe Biden’s supporters so those poll findings from YouGov should be reassuring for Team Biden. I suspect those positive ratings with Republicans will not translate into votes for RFK Jr from the GOP voters. His popularity is likely be down to the potential damage he could do to Biden and his anti-vaccine beliefs…
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One of the primary reasons underpinning my belief that Joe Biden will win in November is that the current iteration of the Republican, captured by Donald Trump, is too extreme for most Americans, and Joe Biden will hoover up the centre and independent ground so this finding from deep in the heart of Texas reaffirms that belief. Conservative Republicans’ attacks on gun control, abortion and climate-friendly investing practices are deeply unpopular — and costing Texas billions of dollars, according to…
Hopefully Robert Peston’s understanding of Rishi Sunak’s comments is better than his understanding of photographs. But what a time to be alive, election announcement dates made on Loose Women. TSE
The betting on Betfair over the last 12 months. TSE
I suspect Nigel Farage will prefer to continue acting like a third rate concierge to Donald Trump than come back to lead Reform. Reform seem disorganised and Richard Tice is having to pump his own money into Reform this isn’t a party that will struggle to organise a decent election campaign. I think the value is backing less than 10.5% in this market from Ladbrokes but I will understand why others may disagree. TSE
After the unexpected defection of Natalie Elphicke last week I wouldn’t be surprised to see another defection today. Two out of the three Tory MPs to Labour defectors this parliament have occured right before PMQs. TSE