Longstanding readers of PB know I am not a fan of constituency polls because it is very hard to get a representative sample and in 2015, outside of Scotland, the constituency polls were as accurate as an American war movie. I am surprised by this polling as I expected Corbyn to win, he’s been the MP for the area for 41 years and there is anecdotal stories that some people in the constituency think he is still the Labour candidate…
Many of us have been pointing out for a while that under SIr Keir Starmer Labour’s vote efficiency is improving to truly impressive levels but there is a potential downside as highlighted in the second tweet. Once the results come through on July the 5th and the results show a massive Labour majority in terms of seats but on very small majorities in terms of votes that could see what I discussed yesterday about Starmer winning a massive majority which…
I like looking at the gender splits in voting intentions because sometimes they give an insight that allows you to make a decent profit on the betting markets. In the run up to the Scottish independence referendum Alex Salmond and Scottish independence whilst popular in absolute terms there was often a gender gap which saw men more supportive of Salmond and Scottish independence whereas women weren’t. There are other examples which some have put down to women being more cautious…
With the Westminster General Election upcoming next month [July], We are all wondering which seats will be close and which constituencies are foregone conclusions. Within Part 1, I will analyse and predict the final standings for the following areas : Belfast South, Belfast West, East Derry / Londonderry, Foyle, Mid Ulster, Newry & Armagh, North Antrim, Upper Bann & West Tyrone. Belfast South : Kate Nicholl [Alliance] is one of the most interesting candidates in this election. The former Lord Mayor is highly popular and…
Think of Scotland, and places like Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk or East Renfrewshire which have swung massively from LD to SNP then SNP to Con all in the space of a few years or East Renfrewshire which has got Lab to SNP then SNP to Con then back to SNP. The Red Wall is likely to see the swings of 2019 reversed on a grand scale. With an uncertain world things can become worse if the appeasers/Russian shills sell out Ukraine I can…
Mark Pack has analysed how many timesthe Tories have polled less than 20% per calendar year. One caveat is that we now have many more polls than before except during the 2010-15 parliament where the daily YouGov skewed things but the chart is very grim for the Blue Team. The last time the Tories were removed from office sub 20% polls were rare and that’s when a lot of pollsters have issues get representative samples which ended up being favourable…
What unites: At first glance, not much. But my contention is that if you dig a little deeper they are all linked by excessive commodification as a result of neo-liberal policies pursued at least since Reagan and Thatcher. The result of these neo-liberal policies? An inability to live well and prosper even in the midst of national and global economies that are richer than ever. We can learn from each of these groups: 1. Reform voters: some at least recognise…
I think Lord Mandelson isn’t being very subtle here. The last thing Labour needs is the voters thinking the election landslide is in the bag and decide they don’t have to vote or that they are safe to vote Lib Dem/Reform/SNP/Greens etc without risking the Labour landslide. My advice to Labour is to not panic if the polls tighten over the next 10 days as it might get those thinking for other parties to back Labour as the overwhelming narrative…