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Earlier on this month the British Polling Council held an event to look at what went wrong with the polling at the last year’s election, you can find the report here and there’s a lot to digest. Over the next few days I will looking at several areas but today I am focussing on the fact that polling industry consistently underestimates the Conservative vote whilst regularly overestimating Labour. If Reform are to eclipse the Conservatives is this underestimation that will…

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Earlier on this month I said the Tories are a rounding error from being fourth in the polls and it has happened which is great news for my 50/1 bet on the Lib Dems winning the most seats at the next election. It’s now a matter of when not if Kemi Badenoch is replaced as Tory leader before the election. TSE

Today’s Telegrapgh has this story from the screenshot. For UK politics the question is will Nigel Farage and a lesser extent Kemi Badenoch be able to distance themselves from Donald Trump? TSE

TSE

More Brits think they could beat a crocodile in a fight than think Kemi Badenoch will be PM after the next general election. I am glad YouGov listened to my suggestion and polled who the public think would be PM after the next election and the results are sub-optimal for Kemi Badenoch who I am even more convinced will not be Tory leader at the election. What really should worry the Tories is that the public think the next election…

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As a human being I loved the fact that Berlin Wall and Iron Curtain fell and millions were liberated from the tyranny of communism but as a Eurovision fan I regret that the Berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain fell as it has ruined Eurovision which used to be great betting opportunity but less so now, and the new voting system hasn’t helped. My strategy of many years has been to lay Le Royaume-Uni and this year Israel (the latter…

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How does the state treat those it has wronged – whether through its actions or failures to act? Badly. Some examples: Blood Contamination The majority of the victims have died while waiting for compensation. Why? “could not in conscience add to the decades-long delays many of you have already experienced due to failures to recognise the depth of your losses. Those delays have themselves been harmful.” Despite some interim payments made in October the judge went on: “My judgement is…

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If I had taken part in this poll the pedant in me would have said it is very unlikely Nigel Farage will become Prime Minister within the next four years simply because I expect the next general election to be held in just over four years. However the changes since January is reflective of the wider polls and local elections. TSE