This usually is a market where laying the favourite is profitable but in this instance I am not so sure given the clown car comedy act Starmer’s premiership has become. I have been advising laying Nigel Farage in this market for months because if Starmer goes before the general election then his replacement will be from the Labour party. TSE
Since the 2024 general election the popularity of the Labour government has not followed the path generally expected of one elected with a landslide majority, plumbing depths only previously reached by the Truss government. The reaction to this in some quarters has been a mixture of bewilderment, disbelief and complacency. The polling is a mirage created by BBC bias in favour of Farage. The government always becomes unpopular and then recovers as the general election approaches. The voters have no…
Last night my phone starting pinging like mad with news alerts from various news apps I have on my phone about Sir Keir Starmer facing a leadership within the next few weeks. Historically it is very difficult to replace a sitting Labour leader, 172 Labour MPs out of 232 MPs voted to say they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn but he remained in place. My only betting strategy in light of this news is to keep on laying Andy…
Picture above: From the first page of the Prescott dossier What do the BBC, the Met Police, the NHS, the Post Office and the City have in common? No, not the basis for a new competition programme – “Spot The Scandal” – (though if someone wants to “borrow” or “steal” this, remember I’m a litigator, a good one). The answer is this: when faced with any sort of challenge or crisis, their initial response is woeful, informed by a mixture…
I think it’s fair to say that Nigel Farage is not overly popular with the denizens of PB. He also looks well set to become Prime Minister with Reform currently odds on to win most seats at the next election. What can stop the Farage juggernaut? I would argue 5 potential things: This article will focus on tactical voting My golden rule I would humbly suggest the following rule of tactical voting: Some left-wing voters will vote tactically for another…
On Saturday I pointed out that the voters will be unhappy if Rachel Reeves raises taxes in this month’s budget but there’s some wiggle room for her. As we can see in the above poll few Brits think Brexit has been good for anything, the sunlit uplands are as dark as a December night. The problem for Labour is that if they keep on blaming Brexit for the ills of the country then country might soon as the government to…
The headline grabbing feature of this poll is that on the economy Labour are polling worse than Liz Truss however there’s someting much more interesting for me. Reform are polling very well in the voting intention figures yet more people trust the Tories on the economy, this might indicate that the Reform vote share is soft and can be reduced and the Tories could do much better a general election if they can present themselves as the most (relatively) economic…
I am not playing this market as it is the epitome of an insiders’ market despite Suella Braverman’s longstanding flirtation with Reform. I am not sure what Suella Braverman’s purpose is in the Tory Party other than to ensure Robert Jenrick isn’t the most disliked Tory MP. TSE