politicalbetting.com

Gareth’s excellent recent PB header “The Challenge for … Reform” suggested that running local councils could give the party valuable executive experience. But does this influx of Reform Councillors actually bring “outsiders” into the system? Or does it just offer “insiders” a new ladder to climb? Meet Stephen Atkinson, newly elected leader of Lancashire County Council. First time elected this year as a Reform councillor, with a career background of having been *checks notes* Council Leader of Ribble Valley Council for the…

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The most interesting finding is that more people are prepared to vote against Labour than they are Reform. While I don’t feel confident enough to predict the outcome of the next election I feel confident in saying the next election with feature hitherto unknown levels of tactical voting. TSE

I find this poll utterly depressing, like Brexit, the voters are prepared to make the country worse off financially because of values. I have recently thoiught about taking a job overseas, more polling like this and I definitely will be going, the country should be about aspiration. TSE

Ever since I’ve read this story I have visions of lots of Iranians sat in Qom and Tehran looking at Scottish subsamples to spin the as evidence of the end of the Union. Was the Supreme Leader simultaneously issuing fatwas about Twelver Shi’ism and Scottish independence? I also have visions of the Iranian trolls utterly befuddled by the scandal involving the motorhome that engulfed Nicola Sturgeon and her husband. It is clear enemies of the United Kingdom are using social…

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What a time to be alive with a POTUS dropping the F bomb so publicly. I feel sorry for geopolitical/foreign policy analysts who have to predict the world with Trump as POTUS. I expect there will be consequences for Bibi and Israel from Trump and the GOP. TSE

Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God, hopefully this ceasefire holds. TSE

The only saving grace I can see for Starmer is that the Labour Party aren’t as pro-regicide as the Tories which gives him over four years to turn things around. TSE

Smarkets have some very low liquidity markets on who will be Tory leader at the next general election but it chimes in with markets where punters think Kemi Badenoch is doomed where it is believed that senior members of Hezbollah and the IRFC have longer career prospects that Kemi Badenoch. I cannot see any value here, if it wasn’t for the time value of money backing Boris Johnson to not be Tory leader at the next election would be the…

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